Dummy Grid 18.24

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Joe Flacco
Michael Carter
Isaac Guerendo
Josh Downs
Michael Pittman
Brian Thomas Jr.
Tucker Kraft
Diontae Johnson
Texans

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

None

I’m not seeing any clear Blue Chips this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Hunting Upside”

Tyler Huntley + Tyreek Hill + Jonnu Smith + Davante Adams

Can replace either of Tyreek/Jonnu with Achane and/or Waddle (if he plays) || can replace Davante with Breece or Garrett Wilson

Story:

“With explosive pieces, this game takes off”

Why It Works:

From my DFS Interpretations for this game ::

• This does not feel, to me, like the game for one-offs. Davante Adams and Breece Hall can absolutely be used in that capacity, and you could make a case for Dolphins pass catchers and De’Von Achane (though that’s not how I would lean), but the quarterbacks in this game are cheap, and this game features Tyreek Hill and Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane and potentially Jaylen Waddle, and a mobile quarterback, and Aaron Rodgers in what he knows might be the last game of his career, and Davante Adams, and Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall, and a talented but bad Jets defense, and a good but not guaranteed-shutdown Miami defense, and taking all of that into consideration, it just feels like the most money, over time, by far, would be made by betting on this game becoming one of the stories of Week 18.
• To be clear, we have seen enough of Tyler Huntley to know that last week’s DFS output and real-life performance are not part of his median outcomes. But we also know Mike McDaniel to be a creative problem-solver, and it’s not unusual for a toolsy backup to put together a hot streak, which is what we would be banking on here. In a game the Dolphins need to win in order to have a shot at making the playoffs, some creatively-schemed or just plain explosive big plays could set off a chain reaction of inspired aggressiveness from Rodgers and each team trading blows in a pretty high-scoring game, with excellent players not drawing particularly high ownership and looking completely obvious in retrospect.
• I really don’t have much more to add on this one. You take a swing on this one and hope for it to play out the right way. Huntley would be a probable driver of that type of game, and if you’re really wanting to swing for the high-end outcome, your Huntley should have at least two other Dolphins (even with Huntley being a mobile QB). Huntley plus any two of Achane // Tyreek // Waddle // Jonnu works, with single- or double-Jets-bring-backs viable. We play out this slate a hundred times, and this one misses plenty; but it can definitely hit at a higher rate than it will be owned, making it strongly +EV.

How It Works:

If this game plays to the upside, firstly, you’ll be separating quite a bit from the field, and secondly, you’ll have four or possibly even five spots on your roster already spoken for. As such, you don’t need to worry about “being different” away from this block. Rosters with this block can look to close out final pieces in any manner desired.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Things Get Weird”

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Bink Machine

My Bink Machine creativity has dried up deep into the season. I’m not seeing any unique rules that are catching my eye this week; but same as last week, I’ll let you know in my Sunday Morning Update if this changes deeper in the weekend.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Baker Mayfield || Joe Flacco || >><< || Geno Smith || Tyler Huntley || Bryce Young

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM