Dummy Grid 12.24

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K

Kyler Murray
Bucky Irving
Rachaad White
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Kavonte Turpin
Luke Schoonmaker
Trey McBride
Broncos

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Find The “BUB Challenge” Channel Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

De’Von Achane

The breakdown here is simple as can be. From my DFS Interpretations for this game ::

Achane has now played 15 regular season games A) with a role, B) with Tua under center, and in those 15 games, he has scored 20.5+ DK points 10 times(!), and has scored 25+ eight times. The Patriots rank 28th in run defense DVOA and have had games this year in which they have gotten visibly pushed around on the ground. Achane is a high-probability bet to hit this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“20%”

Kyler Murray + Marvin Harrison Jr. + Trey McBride

Story:

“For the third time this year, Kyler // MHJ // McBride keeps you on a 210+-point pace”

Why It Works:

So far this year, MHJ and McBride have hit for ceiling together, with each of their “two best games of the season” coming in the same two games. In those same games, of course, Kyler also hit. We explored this in the Angles Pod today, but if the typical player on DK is priced in such a way that they’ll keep you on a 200-point pace roughly 25% of the time, then the chances of getting three uncorrelated players correct on the same roster together would be 1.56%. These three correlated players, on the other hand, have allowed you to cover three spots at a 200-point pace 20% of the time this year. This is how we turn the math in our favor in DFS.

How It Works:

Kyler // MHJ // McBride + a bring-back takes up four of your eight non-DST spots, which doesn’t leave you much room for additional strategy thinking. Use these remaining four spots to focus on maximizing ceiling, trusting that this stack will be unique enough to leave you competing for first place against only a small portion of the field.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“75%”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Rhamondre + Dolphins

From my Rhamondre writeup in the Bonus section of the Player Grid ::

If the Patriots are keeping things close, he always has a clear shot at 20+ DK points. He works best in Maye/Henry rosters (which fit with the thesis of the Patriots keeping things close), but he can also be played away from those two. I would not play Rhamondre without a piece from the Dolphins on the other side, as that would be a story of “Patriots dominate,” which is highly unlikely to be the case. Instead, you want the story of “Patriots score points, and that forces the Dolphins to score points too,” which would absolutely mean some nice tourney scores emerging from Miami.

This first rule, then, says “on Rhamondre rosters, always include one to two of these pieces from the Dolphins”

Of course, we don’t necessarily want our Rhamondre rosters overrun with Waddle and Jonnu bring-backs, as these are less-likely paths to this play coming together. With this in mind, this second rule says, “On 90% of Rhamondre rosters, include one to two of Tyreek // Achane.”

Personally, I also don’t want my “Dolphins doubles” to include Waddle or Jonnu. Basically, I’m happy playing Tyreek and Achane together; but that’s the only Dolphins pairing I want.

So first off, we make sure the Bink Machine is allowed to play two Dolphins without Tua, by setting “max flex” on the Dolphins to 2.

And then, we create a rule for both Jonnu and Waddle that says, “if playing this player, don’t play any of the other players on this list.”

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Kyler Murray || Geno Smith || Baker Mayfield || Tommy DeVito || Brock Purdy || Jordan Love

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM