Dummy Grid 11.25
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Beta
:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Bottom-Up Build
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K
Jacoby Brissett
Chase Brown
Aaron Jones
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Greg Dortch
Michael Wilson
Trey McBride
David Njoku
Titans
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)
<< Join Here >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
From the great Lord Reebs (Sharp Football Analysis), JSN is running 24.8 routes per game on the year, which places him 74th in the NFL. In spite of ranking 74th in the NFL in routes per game, he has the eighth most receiving yards in NFL history through nine games. What JSN is doing on a per-route basis is out of this world; and in a game against a fellow 7-2 team with an elite offense and an aggressive, forward-leaning style, we could easily see JSN run 32, or 35 or even 38-40 routes in this one. As we also know: the Rams are awesome on the defensive line and very good in the front seven overall, but their secondary is their weak link. I’ve talked about this on podcasts and in my Journal this week, but this feels like a week in which we’ll see not only plenty of 30-point scores, but also a handful of scores in the 35-40+ range. CMC, JSN, and Ja’Marr Chase are the players likeliest to go for 35-40+, and of those three, I put JSN at the top. Obviously, we look at things through a “range of outcome” lens, and it’s within JSN’s range of outcomes to score something like 22 DK points (or even to have an outlier in the wrong direction and score 14-17); but if we played out this slate a hundred times, I’m confident JSN would post a score you “had to have” more often than anyone else on this slate, and this makes him a priority for my rosters this week.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“Five for Five”
Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBride
Story:
“This block hits for the fifth game in a row”
Why It Works:
At $11.2k in salary, our target score for this pairing is 40-45 DK points.
In four games so far, this pairing has gone for scores of 45.9 // 50.2 // 41.3 // 52.1.
That’s absolutely remarkable.
This should also be the lowest pressure rate Brissett has faced since taking over, and with the 49ers’ offense getting healthy, the Cardinals have a good chance of being pushed in this one.
There is nowhere else on the slate where you can spend ~$11k in salary and feel this confident in staying on a tourney-winning pace.
How It Works:
As I’ve mentioned many times already this week (in my Journal, in my Friday podcasts, and in the Player Grid), I’m building for Week 11 with the expectation that the story of this weekend will be, “Did you pack as many 30-point scores onto your roster as possible?” Obviously, things could play out differently; but if we played out this slate a hundred times, I believe that would be the story of this slate more often than any other runout, and as such, I want to attack rosters with this thought/angle in mind. This block includes one of the players (McBride) with an excellent shot at going for 30+, and it saves salary at quarterback (a position where we may not see any 30-pointers this week, and where Brissett can easily score 22-25, with pathways to more), thus freeing up salary for the guys on this slate who can go for the 30-point scores we may see popping up in various spots. On top of all that, two of the stronger value plays on this slate from a projections standpoint are Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch, but both guys are fairly weak as solo plays. By playing this block, however, you have the opportunity to pull one (or even both!) of those guys into a comprehensive team stack/bet, thus turning the math more heavily in your favor. Given the way I believe this slate is likeliest to play out, this is “the block to beat” in Week 11, and will account for at least half of my bankroll exposure in SE/3-Max this week.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“BBBlock”
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
Double Pay-Up
As I’ve laid out many times this week :: to me, this week is defined by the potential for multiple high-priced guys to post “had to have it” scores. With that in mind, I want to look for ways to include two of the elite, high-priced guys onto rosters together.
While I wouldn’t be forcing this on 100% of rosters in a larger roster set, this rule is set to run 100% of the time, essentially allowing me to run roster sets with this rule, and to then turn off this rule and run sets without it. The idea is to build a pile of rosters with this rule, and to see what angles/ideas are generated.
This rule says, “On 100% of rosters, include two or three players from this pool.”
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Jacoby Brissett || Joe Flacco || Josh Allen || Justin Herbert || Sam Darnold (I’m fine with Stafford as well)
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
