Every quarterback has feasted on the Commanders horrible secondary, and Murray gets his chance in Week 4. Michael Davis is no match for Marvin Harrison, Jr., and Michael Wilson thrives against the type of zone coverage that Washington likes to play. Murray has looked more confident this season than he has in years. Lock him in for 260+ passing yards and two passing TDs. He might even get a rushing TD as well.
Jacksonville plays a ton of man coverage which feeds right into the skills of Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins. Both receivers should have tons of separation and with Stroud having more time to throw than he did against Minnesota, it’s likely that he will pick them apart to the tune of 300 passing yards. Additionally, Joe Mixon is expected to miss Week 4 which should mean that Houston will rely on Stroud’s arm more than usual.
Call this a hunch or call it that things always seem to regress to the mean, but the NFL always surprises us when we least expect it. Baker and the Bucs put up a sinker at home against Denver which means that things will correct against Philadelphia. The likely reason that Tampa lost last week was that they were coming off a big road win against Detroit and didn’t take the week of practice seriously. That won’t happen this week, as Tampa will be firing against Philadelphia. Bucky Irving is likely to miss the game as well, so look for Baker to throw a bit more than many expect. I think he’s got a real chance for 250 passing yards and two TDs.
Honorable Mention: Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence
Chicago loves to play bend but don’t break defense and keep the game in front of them. However, it’s been their defensive line that has struggled, giving up chunk yards and four rushing TDs (tied for third worst in the league). Sean McVay knows that he needs to keep the Bears offense off the field and wants to control the time of possession. Williams should be a lock for 20-25 carries and should end up with 100+ total yards from scrimmage and a TD.
As of right now, Jaylen Warren is highly questionable to play, making Harris a candidate for 20+ touches. Indianapolis has given up the most rushing yards in the league this season, and we all know how much Steelers OC Arthur Smith wants to run the football. Start Harris with confidence this week, but also throw a few bucks on Cordarelle Patterson with an anytime TD. Both plays might just pay off Visionary Style!
Austin Ekeler has already been ruled out, which should give Robinson a great opportunity to be the only Commander RB to get a touch in the backfield. Don’t underestimate his hands either—he could have five or six receptions, especially if they are playing from behind. He’s a core play in all my DFS lineups.
Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones, Zack Moss
The Jaguars play a ton of man coverage which is exactly what Diggs feasts on. Tank Dell is expected to miss the game, which should mean even more opportunities, and Nico Collins is highly questionable. I’m thinking that Diggs gets about 12 targets and should have 8 receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown.
Michael Davis is one of the worst cover cornerbacks in all the NFL, and this week, he draws Marvin Harrison, who should be able to take full advantage of this matchup. There’s also a good chance that Trey McBride might miss this game and if that happens they’ll be even more targets coming Harrison’s way. I think he’s good for at least double-digit targets which should lead to about six to seven receptions and an excellent chance of a touchdown.
Sometimes it takes a couple of weeks, but patterns arise, and the pattern that we’ve seen with the Detroit Lions is that they’re very good at stopping the run but not great against opposing slot receivers. JSN had one great week in Week 2 but underperformed in Weeks 1 and 3. He seems primed for a rebound in a game that Seattle will have to throw if they want to win.
Honorable Mention: George Pickens, Diontae Johnson
I have absolutely zero shares of Kelce in redraft leagues because I was worried that teams play a lot of zone defenses against the Chiefs, and there may not be a better receiver in the NFL against zone defenses than Rashee Rice. That being said, Kelce is still a force in the red zone, and I think his touchdown equity is still high. Look for him to get about 5 or 6 receptions against the Chargers and score a touchdown.
If you remember, last week I wrote up Dallas Goedert as a visionary play against the Saints. In the first two weeks the Saints were outstanding against opposing tight ends but that was because they played two teams that didn’t have tight ends that they threw the ball to. The Falcons need to keep Pitts involved in their offense or he takes plays off and gets disinterested. I’m expecting Pitts to have 50 to 60 yards and five or six receptions.
On Thursday it came up that Davante Adams has a hamstring issue. Even though he hasn’t been ruled out yet I’m thinking that this needs to be a week where Bowers gets featured. He’s virtually impossible for any linebacker to cover one-on-one and Minshew has already shown that he loves throwing to him. Look for him to get about 7 receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Conklin, Hunter Henry
