DeVonta Smith got paid, y’all. PAID, as in THE BAG. $75 million over three years—$25 million average annual value with $51 million guaranteed. The Eagles believe in him. Should we?
First, the 2023 stats. Smith was good, surpassing the 1,000-yard mark for the third consecutive season (1,066). He added seven touchdowns on 81 catches. His target share was palatable (23.1%), his average depth of target was team-leading (12.7), his air yards share showed his QB had faith in him (31%), and his after-the-catch metrics were solid, though not eye-popping. Speaking of Hurts, his passer rating when targeting Smith was 117.1 – pretty DG. Those are the positives.
And now the negatives – decline in overall production from 2022 to 2023, only nine endzone targets, seven fantasy finishes under 10 points, surprisingly few explosive plays (20+ yards) given his athleticism, and he’s not difficult to tackle (only 55 yards after contact for the entire season). It’s not end-of-the-world-type stuff, though I hate the inconsistency of the results. Smith finished last year as WR20 in fantasy points per game, but he wasn’t a receiver we could count on each week (he delivered a few duds, including 1.1 points in week 6).
As I weigh Smith’s merit, I will consider that the Eagles’ offense collapsed midway through the 2023 season. I would be remiss if I didn’t also consider that he plays in an offense with a lot of mouths to feed, including all-world WR A.J. Brown and new addition Saquon Barkley.
Nick Sirianni kind of needs this team to win now. Expectations are through the roof. He’s under contract through 2026, but if he doesn’t deliver this season, the city of brotherly love won’t be so brotherly lovely. To that end, the organization brought in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, whose offenses throw the football (see Chargers and Cowboys).
An interesting nugget – Moore’s slot WRs have been STUDS. Don’t believe me? Check tape. Oh… and guess what? Smith’s slot usage has increased each year in Philly. Smith is entering his prime, and he operates in a top-scoring offense. I’m doing the math in my head as I type this, and it all adds up – Smith is positioned to explode this season.
Smith is being selected as WR23 near R4/R5, so he’s not cheap. Names drafted in the same space—Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman, Cooper Kupp, and Tee Higgins. I’ll take Smith here and not think twice.
Allow me to close this profile with one word to sum up how I feel about Smith this season: INVEST.
