Sunday, Feb 12th — Late
Bye Week:
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Cowboys @ Bucs

DFS Showdown Strategy

By: Xandamere


Outlook

This game feels like it has a wide range of outcomes in terms of how it can play out. We know the Bucs are going to be almost comically pass-heavy. We also know the Cowboys would prefer to be slow and run-heavy when leading. Outside of a somewhat outlier game against the Titans, (which are of course the NFL’s premier pass funnel matchup), Dak has attempted 30 or fewer passes in every game that the Cowboys ended up leading comfortably throughout. If the Cowboys win, AND if they win somewhat handily, Dak’s passing volume is likely to be pretty modest. If the Bucs win, or if they just keep it close (as the spread implies they are likely to), Dak would likely get up into the upper 30s or higher in attempts. We also know the Bucs have struggled to score this season, and while they rank 2nd in passing yardage per game at 269.8 yards, they ranked 25th in the NFL at just 18.4 points per game. Going up against one of the NFL’s premier defenses, the big question for me in this game is if Tampa can put points on the board or not. 

Potential Scenarios
  • Close-spread games typically see low ownership on 5-1 onslaught builds, making them positive leverage options with low duplication. Brady would be my favorite captain in Bucs onslaughts (though others are obviously viable as well), and while the stats say Dak is the likeliest optimal captain in Cowboys onslaughts, I’d also want to build around Pollard/Zeke/Lamb in those builds too. The Cowboys defense would be a near-must for me in Dallas onslaughts, while the Bucs D is a strong-but-not-completely-necessary play in Tampa onslaughts.
  • I think we’re likely to see ownership concentrate on the passing games. The Dallas run game has a split backfield, while the Bucs backfield has been woefully inefficient this year. Just betting on the scoring coming on the ground with a 2-3 RB construction is going to lead to significant differentiation.
Cash Games

In cash games, my player pool consists of the quarterbacks, Lamb, Godwin (though frankly, I think I won’t be able to afford to have him too), Fournette, Schultz, the kickers, and Otton. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, my favorite captains are Lamb, Fournette, Schultz, and Otton. 


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