One thing I failed to add in the write up but dug up afterwards… the Bills forces the shallowest average depth of target in the league last year. This directly correlates to an increase in expected volume for Diontae Johnson and rookie RB Najee Harris. Will cover an interesting leverage piece I’m toying with in the first installment of the End Around!
The Bills have forced the shallowest defensive average depth of target at 7.0 on the season, further elevating my interest in Nyheim Hines and Zach Pascal!
Haha man, that username is the nuts! Tilt, oh boy, where do I start. Back in the heyday of online poker (yup, how cliche, another DFSer to get their start in poker), I final tabled the Sunday million on Pokerstars. First hand of the final table I get a dream: two black aces on the button with a three bet ahead of me. I four bet, player shoves. One of only three people to cover me. He turns over (or I guess the computer reveals?) AK off suit. I’m sitting so pretty to be chip leader at the final table of a tournament with 250 large up top. He proceeds to four flush me and I go busto. That tournament kick started my online poker bankroll and I went on to play HU O8 against the best in the world in high dollar games over at FullTilt, eventually making my way to DFS. But man I tilted that hard for a long while and gave away most of what I made from that ninth place finish.
Fast forward to now, and I think I have five consecutive losing weeks in SE/3-max and thought about taking a break I was so tilted (like, this was this Monday for me). Monday reflections provided me the opportunity to change my state of mind and realize it isn’t variance, I am accepting too much risk shooting for top 1% finishes in SE/3-max and need to get my damn feet back on the ground. Love this article, man, and you bet you’ll see some of what we’ve discussed carry over into the End Around!
I failed to put this in the article, but NYG have this season’s highest situation-neutral pass rate. Slayton is more than a ceiling play for me this week. The leverage is a bonus!
In 2019, BUF passed at a 26th-ranked 54.96%. In week 1 2020, that was up to 61%, which should yield an additional 4-5 pass attempts in a standard game. Playing MIA isn’t exactly a standard game, but if that pass rate holds true for another week, with Smokey Brown dealing with a toe/foot injury, it could be wheels up for Stefon Diggs!
This game has the best set up in an OL/DL mismatch on the week, as the top 3 OL of the Packers matches up with a bottom 3 DL of the Lions, who just yielded a whopping 5.38 adjusted line yards to CHI! Aaron Jones played on only 51% of GB’s offensive snaps in week one, but finished with 16 carries and 4 receptions on 6 targets, which loosely equates to feature back usage. Basically, when he was on the field, he saw the football. Cherry on top is the 5 green zone touches he saw (touches inside the 10). Game Theory amplifier: he’s priced smack dab between the high priced backs sure to carry ownership this week and the perceived value at the position (we’ll cover more of this in the “End Around” later this week!). With him perceived as a ceiling-only player typically, we should get a guy with a shot at 3 TDs at tiny ownership, whose likeliest scenario has his touches landing in the 18-22 touch range, plenty to give him that elusive floor. Jones also currently ranks 4th in the NFL in expected fantasy points. One of my mid-week favorite plays on the slate!
SE/3-Max Game Theory thought:
As I covered in the course, we’re looking to piece together the same floor in SE/3-Max as if we’d paid up at the position. The best places to look for those diamonds in the rough are concentrated aerial attacks: PHI should be that week 1. Missing two OL pieces (and working out Cordy Glenn this week-a measure of how in trouble that OL is, as Glenn is #notgood), facing a legit top 3 (PFF 4th ranked) DL in WAS, we should expect the majority of damage to be done of the quick-hit variety. With both the troubles of PHI’s OL, paired with a thumb injury to Goeddert, we can expect him to be in-line for majority of the game (in to help that OL). That leaves Sanders (missed a good chunk of camp with an injury), Ertz and DJax as truly the only pass-catchers (JJAW-I’ll believe it’s when I see it, and two rookie WRs the only other pass-catchers on the roster). I’ll cover a deeper dive into the Game Theory aspects of this approach for this game in my weekly article, and if you haven’t read my Game Theory course, the first five lessons are FREE!
Steelers at Bills, Week 1
One thing I failed to add in the write up but dug up afterwards… the Bills forces the shallowest average depth of target in the league last year. This directly correlates to an increase in expected volume for Diontae Johnson and rookie RB Najee Harris. Will cover an interesting leverage piece I’m toying with in the first installment of the End Around!
Buccaneers at WFT, Wild Card
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS:
The Bills have forced the shallowest defensive average depth of target at 7.0 on the season, further elevating my interest in Nyheim Hines and Zach Pascal!
Above the Field 🌤️ Week 15,
Haha man, that username is the nuts! Tilt, oh boy, where do I start. Back in the heyday of online poker (yup, how cliche, another DFSer to get their start in poker), I final tabled the Sunday million on Pokerstars. First hand of the final table I get a dream: two black aces on the button with a three bet ahead of me. I four bet, player shoves. One of only three people to cover me. He turns over (or I guess the computer reveals?) AK off suit. I’m sitting so pretty to be chip leader at the final table of a tournament with 250 large up top. He proceeds to four flush me and I go busto. That tournament kick started my online poker bankroll and I went on to play HU O8 against the best in the world in high dollar games over at FullTilt, eventually making my way to DFS. But man I tilted that hard for a long while and gave away most of what I made from that ninth place finish.
Fast forward to now, and I think I have five consecutive losing weeks in SE/3-max and thought about taking a break I was so tilted (like, this was this Monday for me). Monday reflections provided me the opportunity to change my state of mind and realize it isn’t variance, I am accepting too much risk shooting for top 1% finishes in SE/3-max and need to get my damn feet back on the ground. Love this article, man, and you bet you’ll see some of what we’ve discussed carry over into the End Around!
End Around :: Week 3,
“End Around” UPDATE:
I failed to put this in the article, but NYG have this season’s highest situation-neutral pass rate. Slayton is more than a ceiling play for me this week. The leverage is a bonus!
Bills at Dolphins, Week 2
In 2019, BUF passed at a 26th-ranked 54.96%. In week 1 2020, that was up to 61%, which should yield an additional 4-5 pass attempts in a standard game. Playing MIA isn’t exactly a standard game, but if that pass rate holds true for another week, with Smokey Brown dealing with a toe/foot injury, it could be wheels up for Stefon Diggs!
Lions at Packers, Week 2
This game has the best set up in an OL/DL mismatch on the week, as the top 3 OL of the Packers matches up with a bottom 3 DL of the Lions, who just yielded a whopping 5.38 adjusted line yards to CHI! Aaron Jones played on only 51% of GB’s offensive snaps in week one, but finished with 16 carries and 4 receptions on 6 targets, which loosely equates to feature back usage. Basically, when he was on the field, he saw the football. Cherry on top is the 5 green zone touches he saw (touches inside the 10). Game Theory amplifier: he’s priced smack dab between the high priced backs sure to carry ownership this week and the perceived value at the position (we’ll cover more of this in the “End Around” later this week!). With him perceived as a ceiling-only player typically, we should get a guy with a shot at 3 TDs at tiny ownership, whose likeliest scenario has his touches landing in the 18-22 touch range, plenty to give him that elusive floor. Jones also currently ranks 4th in the NFL in expected fantasy points. One of my mid-week favorite plays on the slate!
Eagles at Washington, Week 1
SE/3-Max Game Theory thought:
As I covered in the course, we’re looking to piece together the same floor in SE/3-Max as if we’d paid up at the position. The best places to look for those diamonds in the rough are concentrated aerial attacks: PHI should be that week 1. Missing two OL pieces (and working out Cordy Glenn this week-a measure of how in trouble that OL is, as Glenn is #notgood), facing a legit top 3 (PFF 4th ranked) DL in WAS, we should expect the majority of damage to be done of the quick-hit variety. With both the troubles of PHI’s OL, paired with a thumb injury to Goeddert, we can expect him to be in-line for majority of the game (in to help that OL). That leaves Sanders (missed a good chunk of camp with an injury), Ertz and DJax as truly the only pass-catchers (JJAW-I’ll believe it’s when I see it, and two rookie WRs the only other pass-catchers on the roster). I’ll cover a deeper dive into the Game Theory aspects of this approach for this game in my weekly article, and if you haven’t read my Game Theory course, the first five lessons are FREE!