We’ve reached the point in the season where there are so many good college football games taking place on Saturdays that I genuinely don’t know how DraftKings narrows it down to 12 games for the main slate. I’m not complaining because I think they generally do a good job, but it’s always strange to see matchups like Virginia/UNC and Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech left off of the main slate. Anyway, we’re here to talk about the games that ARE on the Main slate, so here’s who we like this week!
You generally see me opt to play mobile QBs over pocket passers on DraftKings because it’s just generally easier for them to accumulate a lot of fantasy points. For me to want to play a pocket passer, I generally want to see a great game environment, with upside to reach the 3-point 300-yard passing bonus and clear receiving options to stack with. Hoover checks off all of those boxes. The TCU/Texas Tech game has a total set at 66.5, which is the second highest on the slate. Check. Hoover has thrown for 300 yards in 4/7 games this season, and TCU passes at the 7th-highest rate in the nation. Check. And TCU plays a condensed WR rotation of Bech, Williams, McAlister, and Richardson, all of whom have had a game of 4x value for their current salary this season. Check. I will be playing Hoover, and I will be stacking him with 1 or 2 of his pass catchers in my lineups.
This play is slightly more outside the box compared to my first QB. This play is also very much based on Brown’s role in his offense as opposed to matchup or prior production. Remember back at the start of the season when KJ Jefferson was routinely priced in the $9k range on DraftKings? Well, that was because we have seen QBs like Cam Newton, Nick Marshall, and John Rhys Plumlee have incredible statistical seasons in the Gus Malzahn offense. Well, now Brown is the starter, and he’s priced at only $7k. And all he has done is put up 20.7 DraftKings points in 3 quarters against Cincinnati and 30.9 DraftKings points in his first start against Iowa State. I simply think he’s too cheap for what this offense can be for a QB. DFS Hero agrees with me, as they have Brown as the 4th-best value play at the QB position.
DFS Hero’s #1 value play: Darian Mensah, Tulane, $5000
Others receiving votes: Riley Leonard, Notre Dame, $8800, and Max Brosmer, Minnesota, $5000
This spot just feels too perfect for Makhi Hughes tomorrow. Tulane, a team that ranks 8th in the country in rush rate, is taking on North Texas, a team that allows 175 rushing yards per game. Add that to the fact that North Texas plays at the 5th fastest tempo in the nation, and the game has a slate-leading total of 68.5. Makhi Hughes should have plenty of opportunities to gash this Mean Green defense. DFS Hero has Hughes as their #1 value play of the entire slate, regardless of position.
I feel like James is generally the forgotten man in the Oregon offense as everyone always looks to play the Oregon passing game. But this matchup against Illinois is a smash spot for running backs. The Illini lost a lot from their defensive line from last season and now give up 161 rushing yards per game. James should be able to take advantage of this matchup.
I think that “Cal RB” should have a field day against an Oregon State defense that gives up an average of 215 rushing yards per game, 13th-most in the FBS. If Ott plays, he will be the guy, and if he is out then Jaivian Thomas is a supreme value. But we truly do not know the status of Ott as of this writing.
Others receiving votes: Darius Taylor, Minnesota, $8000 and Marcus Carroll, Missouri, $4000
Minnesota’s WR1, Daniel Jackson, averages about 8.7 targets per game. Minnesota’s passing offense averages about 30.6 pass attempts per game. That gives our guy Jackson about a 28.5% target share, which is an insanely high number. And now he gets to take on Maryland, who gives up about 288 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per pass attempt. If Jackson maintains his target dominance this week, he could easily catch 8 passes for 100 yards and be the “guy you had to have” this Saturday. DFS Hero has Jackson as their #1 value play at the WR position.
This is more of an Xs and Os based play than a matchup play or a game environment play. From what I have seen of the Cal defense this season, they are a defense that is going to try to take away what you do best and make you play outside of your comfort zone. Well, Oregon State is a team that loves to run the football and is limited at QB. So I expect Cal to force the Beavers into throwing the ball, and when they do, it’s often to Walker, who has an absurd 34% target share on the season.
Others receiving votes: Evan Stewart, Oregon, $4200
On the other side of that Tulane/North Texas matchup sits one of the nation’s most prolific passing offenses in North Texas. The Mean Green, however, could potentially again be without two of their starting WRs. In their absence, Carnes actually ran the highest route share of anyone on the team last week and had a steady 6 targets. I think he makes for a great low-priced punt play this week.
Beaux Collins HIGHER 18.5 Longest Reception
Evan Stewart HIGHER 26.5 Longest Reception
LJ Martin HIGHER 12.15 Fantasy Points
