I honestly can not recall any other time I played College Football DFS that DraftKings has had a 14-game Main slate. And this even goes back to the OG days of CFB DFS in 2014 and 2015! With the slate being larger than ever, there are more options for filling out a lineup than ever before! So, this week is going to be all about how we can parse through these options and bring out the best ones for our lineups. Here’s who we like this week:
Let’s set the record straight: no QB on the slate has as much upside as Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. But taking the silver medal in that regard is West Virginia’s Garrett Greene. And he’s about $2400 cheaper than Milroe. The price tag on Greene is what makes him really enticing. At only 8k, you need him to score at least 3 times his salary — 24 fantasy points — to return value. Well, Greene has gone over 32 fantasy points twice so far this season and 5 times dating back to last season, with 3 of those being over 40 fantasy points! And that’s not even taking into account that Oklahoma State has surrendered two performances of 30 fantasy points or more to QBs this season (Taylen Green, Avery Johnson). All of the numbers this week point to Garrett Greene having a great day.
With Grayson McCall projected to miss another game, the true freshman signal-caller for the Wolfpack is set for another start, and he projects as the #1 QB value play of the slate, according to DFS Hero. NC State is implied to 30 points in this matchup against Wake Forest, which means that they should score around 4 touchdowns. If Bailey just accounts for 2 TDs, he returns value, and if he is responsible for all 4, he would be the “guy you had to have” for this slate. The price is right on this cheap QB play.
DFS Hero #2 value play: Marcel Reed, Texas A&M, $6200
Others receiving votes: Eli Holstein, Pitt, $9000
On a slate where a lot of the top skill players have question marks, Omarion Hampton is a man with none. Since North Carolina has turned to Jacolby Criswell at QB, Hampton has carried the ball 38 times, caught 7 passes, and averaged 31.8 DraftKings points in those two contests. This game environment is also outstanding, with a total of 64.5 points, and North Carolina is implied to score 31.
As a former video assistant for Charlotte’s football team when I was in college, I know that a lot of things happen behind closed doors in college football, and it’s not worth speculating over what happens sometimes. In Wisconsin’s case, they saw the random departure of Chez Mellusi from the program this Thursday. Why? I don’t know, and I don’t see the need to find out. But what it means is this: Oklahoma transfer Tawee Walker is now the lead dog in a backfield that was formerly a 50/50 committee. This increase to his workload, in addition to a matchup against a Purdue team that surrendered 300+ yards rushing in 2 of their last 3 games, makes Tawee Walker DFS Hero’s #1 RB value play on the slate.
DFS Hero #2 value play: Isaac Brown, Louisville, $4300
Others receiving votes: Micah Ford, Stanford, $4100 and Rodney Hammond, Pitt, $3000 (Check status)
We know that Concepcion has the capability for an explosive game – he scored 41.9 DraftKings points in week 1 against Western Carolina – but it has been a while since he has had one. I think this spot against Wake Forest is a great time to buy low on Concepcion. This Wake Forest defense has had 3 straight games where the opposing WR1 scored 26 or more DraftKings points.
Normally, I would place a player at this salary in the “Hail Mary” section, but this is closer to a QB sneak than a Hail Mary, metaphorically speaking. The South Alabama transfer Caullin Lacy was supposed to be Louisville’s WR1 this season, but a pre-season injury changed things. Well, he is back healthy now and had 5 catches for 71 yards against Notre Dame last week. Yet, he’s still only $3400. This is just a straight misprice for Lacy. Simply repeating last week’s performance would be almost 4x value, and this is surely a better matchup against SMU, and Lacy’s usage should only continue to rise. DFS Hero agrees with me on this being a misprice, as Lacy is their #1 value play at the WR position.
Others receiving votes: Tre Harris, Ole Miss, $8900 and Will Pauling, Wisconsin, $4500
The Aggies’ big play threat is another player that I would consider a misprice on this slate. He clearly has some rapport with new QB Marcel Reed, as he was targeted 11 times last week. And this Missouri secondary, in my opinion, is the worst that the Aggies have seen in quite some time.
Marcel Reed HIGHER 16.25 Fantasy Points
Jordan Waters HIGHER 35.5 Rushing Yards
Jaheim White HIGHER 51.5 Rushing Yards
