Buy Low/Sell High 5.24
These are the guys who public perception may be low on but have brighter days ahead…..as well as the guys who may be coming off a big game but have a tough schedule or potential role change in their future.
BUY LOW
Josh Jacobs, RB, GB
- We recommended Jacobs as a “Buy Low” candidate last week and this week is an even better time to buy. The Packers’ offense was rusty early in Week 4 against a good Vikings team before Jordan Love found his groove in the second half. Now that Love is back on track, Jacobs is set to explode as the lead RB for a team that faces the Rams, Cardinals, and Jaguars in three of its next four games. Those three teams all rank in the bottom four in the NFL in defensive DVOA, and it won’t be shocking if Jacobs is a top-5 RB during this upcoming stretch.
De’Von Achane, RB, MIA and Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
- These two players fall in the same category and logic, and are targets for specific situations. If your team is sitting at 3-1 or 4-0 while the Achane or Hill owner is sitting at 1-3 or 0-4, start up a conversation and see if you can make something happen. The Dolphins’ offense has looked awful the last two weeks without Tua Tagovailoa, and this week has a matchup with a Patriots team that will likely keep things low-scoring followed by a Week 6 bye. This may not be a move you make this week, but keep tabs on the situation because the Hill/Achane owner may not be able to wait until the Dolphins get Tua back and be forced to make a move.
Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
- Cooper had a rough Week 4 with a pass that hit him in the chest bouncing in the air for an interception and an 82-yard TD called back by penalty. Amari has now had three very poor weeks and one big week. However, his weekly upside is terrific and the Browns have a great run of opposing secondaries coming up with the Commanders, Eagles, and Bengals next up on the schedule. Those teams rank 30th, 27th, and 26th in pass defense DVOA and have given up big games through the air to many opponents this season.
SELL HIGH
Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS
- This is going to be a hard one to sell, as Daniels has looked incredible to start his career and anyone who owns Daniels is not going to want to give him up right now. Stepping back, however, the Commanders last three games have been against the Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals – all of which rank in the bottom 10 in the league against the pass, while the Bengals and Cardinals rank 30th and 32nd, respectively, in PFF pass-rush grade. Things get significantly tougher for Daniels over the next six weeks, with four games against the very good defenses of Cleveland, Baltimore, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. We also have seen this before with rookies who get off to a hot start and then teams get more film on them and adjust and make their lives tougher. You will likely never see the value of Daniels any higher than it is right now, and we haven’t even mentioned how his playing style opens him up to injury risk and that will only be exacerbated as he starts playing more physical teams who generate more pressure. Three of the next four opponents of the Commanders rank in the top 10 in PFF pass-rush grade, and he is going to take some big hits in the coming weeks.
Aaron Jones, RB, MIN
- Jones has been great to start 2024 and the Vikings are riding high. However, if you have him and your team is struggling a bit, now is the perfect time to get off the Aaron Jones express. The Vikings play the Jets this week, followed by their Week 6 bye, and then face the Lions in Week 7. Both the Jets and Lions have tough run defenses, so it is likely that you aren’t seeing high-end production for the next three weeks. Jones has been too good to justify benching, but his likely outcomes during Weeks 5 and 7 are pedestrian stat lines that don’t help you turn your season around. He is healthy right now, which is somewhat rare for Jones, and his value is high as people jump on the Vikings’ bandwagon. It feels uncomfortable selling someone who has performed as well as Jones, but that’s kind of the idea.
