Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.
Remember when Mahomes to Kelce was a thing in DFS? In 2022, people would start their lineups with this pairing and it paid off time after time. But, both have hit 30 points just once in the past two seasons, in Week 7 of 2023 when they combined for 75 points. In that week, the pairing could have cost 20k and would have been a good score. If they are capable of that score in 2024, this would be a good week to look for it. In my Recognizing Biases class, I use the Mahomes + Kelce stack as an example to explain how observer bias wants us to see and like what has already happened. You always saw Mahomes + Kelce connecting and scoring big, and it became a legit way to start a +EV lineup.
One year later, our observer bias has us fading the Chiefs QB and top TE. Things can change quickly in the NFL and we have to adapt. Mahomes and Kelce are the OG pairings that are overlooked and untrusted. It’s a perfect time to recognize our bias in not playing them – they haven’t hit in a year (exactly one year) and they’re in a difficult matchup. Many analysts and DFS players advocate just paying down at TE, leaving Kelce and other high priced TEs out of favor. Perhaps you have a negative view of KC’s offense after losing their #1 WR and RB at the same time. Still, Patrick Mahomes has done a lot more with less. Can Mahomes pass for 4 TDs? I like to think he can (he may need to do this in order to win) with two of them going to Kelce. It’s at least a scenario we should be considering in this year’s lucky Week 7. Sometimes you have to take a look at the past to more clearly glimpse the future.
