Battle Royale 8.23

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

Welcome to Week 8!

If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is my review of the top Battle Royale rosters in 2021 and 2022.

For this week, I’ll be hitting on some of my thoughts on each position and updating some trending stats. Let’s get started!

Looking at Week 8

Much deeper slate than Week 7, with 26 teams available to grab players from. This will likely bring the top score back up to early-season levels compared to some of the last weeks. TDs in this format are the biggest drivers of scoring, making it extra necessary to ensure you’re drafting players with multi-TD upside in their range of outcomes.

QB:

Notable QBs missing from the slate: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Jared Goff

Top 6 QBs by ADP: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence

Notes:

• CJ Stroud @ CAR: While the matchup is attackable on the ground and HOU preference will likely keep Stroud from a significant boost in pass attempts, CAR has been dealing with secondary injuries all year and recently got picked apart by Goff and Tua from the pocket on just 28 and 31 pass attempts respectively. On a week in which QB feels a little uncomfortable after the top 3 guys, Stroud can put up a strong score with one of his several reasonable stacking partners.
• Derek Carr @ IND: While this could be a place in which you keep betting on a situation to work out and it just never does, it’s still hard to ignore how much skill position talent this offense possesses. Carr is a feasible option at the end of drafts given the potential for this game environment to play out above expectations. IND’s style of defense makes Kamara one of my favorite stacking partner with Carr, but Olave and Thomas are options as well given how IND has been attacked by WRs.
• Kenny Pickett vs JAC: JAC has already allowed four 300-yard passers, and 12 QB TDs in 7 games. JAC has the pieces to push PIT in this game environment, and with JAC tougher to attack on the ground, it opens up opportunities through the air for Pickett. This will be the most favorable matchup he’s had all year to this point, and both his top WRs are expected to play.

RB:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs

There are strong RBs available at every point in drafts this week, so it’s really about what kind of passing game areas you’re attacking and then fitting in which RBs are available around that decision.

Notes:

• Alvin Kamara @ IND: Defense sets up perfectly for how Kamara is used in the passing game, and the run defense has been much weaker this year for the Colts so far. There’s slight concern for how much his backups get worked into the game plan, but I’m betting on the Saints to want to keep force-feeding their most effective player the ball.
• Breece Hall @ NYG: Hall has really started to find his form from pre-ACL tear, and now catches a defense that has been gashed on the ground by several RBs. Hall is one of the most explosive players in the game, and in a matchup that favors NYJ desire to run the ball, he sets up very nicely here.
• D’andre Swift and WAS: Swift has a final round ADP despite one of the highest usage rates at the position so far in 2023. Losing touches to Hurts around the goal line is part of why he struggles to reach the bigger scores, but his volume in a favorable game environment makes him a strong bet in the last round of drafts.
• Dameon Pierce @ CAR: Some concern over Singletary involvement, but this matchup is as good as it gets on the ground, and it’s a massive improvement over what Pierce has faced recently. Final round ADP for a guy with two games already over 20 carries in his easiest matchup of the season.

WR:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Amon-Ra St. Brown

This is a beautiful week to scroll down at WR, with many questionable situations in the middle of drafts at WR, and many interesting ones going overlooked. There are several WRs with big ceilings that have been frustrating drafters recently and as a result, have fallen way down in drafts. One of the easiest ways to be unique in these contests is to find these low-owned guys that still carry high ceilings, and this week provides plenty.

Notes:

• Nico Collins, Tank Dell @ CAR: Even with Noah Brown back, with Woods out, these two are favored to have at least one strong performance between them against this struggling secondary. Basically, all the HOU weapons are in good spots here (Schultz and Pierce too), but I still probably prefer one of the WRs for stacking with Stroud if betting on a big passing day.
• Devonta Smith and WAS: While Smith has been quiet recently, he’s always a threat to put up a monster day with his downfield ability. WAS faces one of the highest aDOTs in the league, and Smith’s ADP has finally fallen to where it only takes a final-round pick to add him. Smith combined with one of the first-round WRs is one way to leverage AJ Brown’s ADP, as the two are unlikely to hit their ceilings together. He’s easily stackable with Hurts.
• Garrett Wilson @ NYG: One of the most frequently targeted players against the blitz, something which NYG does a lot. Strong share of passing volume, positive matchup, and going end of drafts despite averaging 10 targets a game in the five Zach Wilson starts.
• George Pickens, Diontae Johnson vs JAC: No Freiermuth, attackable secondary, and on the opposite side of a strong JAC offense. Half-PPR hasn’t typically been the best format for targeting Johnson, but one of these WRs should put up a nice score here and are easily stacked with Pickett or on the opposite side of JAC pieces.
• Drake London @ TEN: Defense weak against WRs, and undergoing fire sale after shipping off safety Kevin Byard. ATL’s offensive volume is always tough to bet on, especially on the road, but London is getting great usage for someone going nearly undrafted.
• Calvin Ridley @ PIT: PIT plays less press coverage, which benefits Ridley and gives him a chance to get back on track. PIT has been getting thrashed by WRs all year, and Kirk has finally passed Ridley in ADP, making Ridley even lower-owned than normal after several weeks of hurting drafters.
• Tee Higgins @ SF: SF has allowed some strong WR performances, and Chase is going at the top of drafts while Higgins is going undrafted. He’s further removed from his rib injury, fresh off a bye week, and carries multi-TD upside in this offense.

TE:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Cole Kmet

I can see the argument for Travis Kelce or CMC at 1.01 this week, and it likely depends on how you feel about the later TEs. Both positions have solid depth this week, with plenty of RB spots to like and with essentially all the elite TEs available here. CMC paired with Pacheco or Rice is probably the best way to leverage Kelce given that a lower ceiling for Kelce is likely to benefit those other two the most directly.

Notes:

• Dallas Goedert @ WAS: WAS really struggling with big-bodied targets, and PHI has really got him more involved in the passing game of late.
• George Kittle vs CIN: No Deebo Samuel always leads to an uptick in usage for Kittle, and the matchup presents as easier for him than Brandon Aiyuk.
• Dalton Schultz @ CAR: More involved in the offense of late; this game environment could play above expectation if CAR is able to score better coming out of Bye with a new play-caller.
• Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith @ TEN: TEN defense just shipped out the best secondary player, and both of these TEs have been getting decent usage of late. Not a super attractive game environment, but the passing game is fairly concentrated.

Underowned Combos:

• Patrick Mahomes + Isiah Pacheco
• Jalen Hurts + Devonta Smith + Terry McLaurin
• Christian McCaffrey + George Kittle + Tee Higgins
• CJ Stroud + Tank Dell/Dalton Schultz + (Adam Thielen)
• Dak Prescott + Tony Pollard + (Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua)
• Kenny Pickett + George Pickens + Calvin Ridley/Travis Etienne
• Derek Carr + Alvin Kamara + (Jonathan Taylor)
• Jordan Love + Christian Watson + Jordan Addison

Notable Stats

These are some notable stats from rosters appearing in the top 5 of the contest so far this season.

1st place performance:

• 30 of the 43 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 19 of the 43 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 39 of the 43 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

Stacking and Correlation:

• 23 of 43 had a QB paired with just one teammate
  • WR (17), TE (4), RB (2)
• 7 of 43 had a QB stacked with two teammates
  • WR-RB (4), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (1)
• 5 of those 30 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
• 42 of 43 had at least one game correlation
• 13 of 43 had two different game correlations

FLEX usage:

• 146 of 215 top-5 rosters have had two RBs, meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
• 68 of the other top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning last week’s fifth place finish with Kelce + Andrews was the first instance of double-TE to ever finish top-5.

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!