Sunday, Feb 11th — Late
Bye Week:
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Colts
Commanders
Cowboys
Dolphins
Eagles
Falcons
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Panthers
Patriots
Raiders
Rams
Ravens
Saints
Seahawks
Steelers
Texans
Titans
Vikings

Battle Royale 6.23

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

Welcome to Week 6!

If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is my review of the top Battle Royale rosters in 2021 and 2022.

Looking at Week 6

QB and TE are depleted of studs this week but the WR and RB depth is incredibly strong.

QB:

Notable QBs missing from the slate: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones

Top 6 QBs by ADP: Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford

Notes:

  • Tua Tagovailoa vs CAR: While CAR may have a weaker run defense than pass defense, they have significant injuries in the secondary and just got torched by Jared Goff last week. Achane on IR means the usage should be even more concentrated on his stacking partners, and MIA has the highest implied team total by a country mile.
  • Matthew Stafford vs ARI: The last time Stafford and Kupp were healthy together in 2021, the two were actually the most frequent pairing to make a top-5 roster in this contest. The TDs have yet to really pile up for Stafford this year, but a full complement of weapons and a weak defense is the best spot yet for him to have a big game. I will talk about Dobbs too but the matchup sets up well enough for ARI to push this game on the other side as well.
  • Josh Dobbs @ LAR: The Rams have been run all over by Richardson and Hurts the last two weeks, and Dobbs has run for 40+ yards three times already. It’s unlikely LAR will not score a good deal of points on the other side, so can expect the Cardinals to need to be aggressive all game. Losing Conner hurts the offense as a whole, but may place the ball in Dobbs hands even more than before.
RB:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Isaiah Pacheco

Notes:

  • Alvin Kamara @ HOU: Has 25 opportunities in two straight games, in a favorable matchup against a defense that likes to force you to play in front of them through the air, carries multi-TD upside, and has two starting teammates dealing with injuries (Olave and Johnson).
  • Josh Jacobs vs NE: Not a matchup to typically target, but NE has significant injuries and has allowed nice days already to Mostert and Kamara. Jacobs is being drafted too late for an RB with such a big role in this concentrated offense.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson @ LV: This is not a good RB defense, and Stevenson is coming off a brutal stretch of matchups for this NE offense to start the season. Chance to get back on track here in a game environment that carries some upside given the depleted state of the Patriots defense.
  • Jonathan Taylor @ JAC: Certainly not without risk, but this is a 1-2 round player going undrafted because of role uncertainty in his recent return. The matchup isn’t a plus one, and Moss has played well enough to warrant touches, but the Colts just paid their main man significant dollars and he’s going to take control eventually. Might be your last chance to draft Taylor in this range.
WR:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: Stefon Diggs, Ceedee Lamb, Keenan Allen, Deandre Hopkins, Zay Flowers, Gabe Davis, Christian Watson, George Pickens

Notes:

  • Tyreek Hill, JaMarr Chase, Cooper Kupp: I want any of these guys any time I have the opportunity to draft them.
  • Jaylen Waddle vs CAR: With Devon Achane going on IR, I expect more plays designed for Waddle. Hasn’t popped yet this year, but a big game is always in his range of outcomes.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown @ TB: Has typically required a high-scoring environment to put up a tourney score, but with Gibbs and LaPorta both questionable, his target share is likely to be even bigger than normal. DET’s secondary injuries and TB’s weapons also have the potential to push this game to a bigger score.
  • Jordan Addison @ CHI: The ball has to go somewhere, and Addison and Hockenson are going to be Cousins’s and O’Connell’s preferred places to get the ball in the passing game. Jefferson’s defensive attention makes Addison’s life easier and MIN harder to defend, but Addison is clearly talented and an expected increase in volume could be enough to offset the decrease in efficiency.
  • Chris Godwin vs DET: My initial thought on Tuesday was that I was going to play a lot of Mike Evans with DET’s secondary banged up, but it’s clear his hamstring is still an issue. Evans is still a good play himself if he plays, but the week is so stacked at WR that I’d prefer to take my chance on the guy without the hammy scare. Both teams are more likely to find success through the air in this matchup, giving this game a chance for significant points.
  • Jakobi Meyers vs NE: Chance to stick it to his previous team that didn’t want to pay him, in a super concentrated offense, playing against a defense missing its best players.
  • Michael Thomas @ HOU: The Texans defense sets up much better for how Thomas is used in the short-intermediate range. Has yet to score this season, but has always found the endzone throughout his career. His team’s WR1 is dealing with a lingering toe injury.

TE:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Dalton Kincaid, Jake Ferguson

Notes:

  • TJ Hockenson @ CHI: The obvious top TE on a week down Kelce and Andrews and with Kittle playing CLE’s tough defense with all SF’s weapons healthy. No Jefferson hurts the offense, but he will have plays designed for him as arguably the top receiver on the team now. Good TE matchup so far in 2023.
  • Evan Engram vs IND: One of the most consistent target-getters at the position. Two teammates are going in the first couple of rounds.
  • Hunter Henry @ LV: Already shown solid usage to start the year, and finally gets an easier matchup after a string of really tough ones.
  • Logan Thomas @ ATL: A good TE spot so far in 2023, and Thomas has displayed upside in this offense.

Underowned Combos:

  • Josh Dobbs + Zach Ertz + Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua/Kyren Williams
  • Matthew Stafford + 2
  • Justin Fields + Jordan Addison + TJ Hockenson
  • Baker Mayfield + Chris Godwin/Mike Evans + Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • Tua Tagovailoa + 2
  • Trevor Lawrence + Christian Kirk + Travis Etienne
  • Mac Jones + Hunter Henry + Josh Jacobs/Davante Adams

Notable Stats

1st place performance:

  • 28 of the 41 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
  • 18 of the 41 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
  • 37 of the 41 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

Stacking and Correlation:

  • 23 of 41 had a QB paired with just one teammate
    • WR (17), TE (4), RB (2)
  • 6 of 41 had a QB stacked with two teammates
    • WR-RB (3), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (1)
  • 5 of those 29 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
  • 40 of 41 had at least one game correlation
  • 13 of 41 had two different game correlations

FLEX usage:

  • 139 of 205 top-5 rosters have had two RBs, meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
  • The other 66 top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there has yet to be a single roster to place top 5 using double TE.

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!