Battle Royale 5.23

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

Welcome to Week 5!

If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is how to access my article reviewing 2021 and 2022 top rosters:

OWS → Archives → The Scroll Archives → Week 1, 2023 → Battle Royale (at bottom) (or click the link)

This was an atypical weekly preview as it was more of a primer for the contest than about anything Week 1 specific; so if you’d like to access it, then that is the easiest way to do it.

For this week, I’ll be hitting on some of my thoughts on each position and updating some trending stats. Let’s get started!

Reviewing Week 4

Notes:

• As I suspected, it took a super high score to win Week 4, with the 182.1 winning score being the 4th highest score in 40 contests.
• Back-to-back weeks with the rare QB double in first place (Justin Fields – DJ Moore – Cole Kmet).
• QB stacking (28 of 40 winners) has not required runbacks (4 of the 28 stacks included an opposing player) to be successful to this point
• RB at FLEX has maintained a 68% rate on top-5 rosters.
• Week 5 sets up almost the exact opposite, with a higher chance of a lower scoring 1st place.

Looking at Week 5

QB:

Notable QBs missing from the slate: Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Geno Smith, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love

Top 6 by ADP: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins

Notes:

• Patrick Mahomes at MIN: Huge favorite to lead the slate at QB; attempt to stack with Kelce whenever given the rare chance. Playable across MIN pieces, but none of the KC WRs are worth stacking in this offense in this contest (Rashee Rice and Jerick McKinnon are the only two I’ll even be considering in a 12-man draft.
• Tua Tagovailoa: MIA has three guys going in the top 15 picks (Tyreek Hill – De’Von Achane – Jaylen Waddle) due to the highest implied total on a slate lacking many elite offensive players. Tua doubles are in play this week with any of the 4 MIA guys (+ Raheem Mostert) making it onto my rosters. 
• Jared Goff vs CAR: DET is implied for 27 points at home, and his RB David Montgomery is getting drafted in the top 10. Goff stacked with St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and/or Sam LaPorta all provide some leverage on Montgomery (who’s still a strong play himself).
• Josh Dobbs vs CIN: Dobbs has 25, 17, and 23 fantasy points in his last 3 games, and now catches a Bengals team that has struggled to move the ball through Joe Burrow’s injury. If that continues, ARI will have a lot of driving opportunities against a defense that while solid, is no better than the DAL and SF defenses Dobbs just played well against. Watson and Lamar ran for a combined 99 yards + TD vs CIN; Dobbs has rushing totals of 41:1, 55, and 48 in his last 3 games.

RB:

Notable RBs missing from this slate: Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, Kenneth Walker, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley(?)

The top 3 RBs being drafted right now are Bijan Robinson, De’Von Achane, and David Montgomery, so welcome to Week 5.

Notes:

• Derrick Henry at IND: Not the easiest matchup on the ground, but volume is king, and we can expect King Henry to get 20+ touches here minimum. Jonathan Taylor is going to climb draft boards this week with positive news, but the Titans are favorites to be in control of this game, and Henry is the biggest driver/beneficiary of that.
• Breece Hall at DEN: Hall has been flowing up the board all week due to his matchup and positive coachspeak about his workload. DEN has been absolutely terrible on defense, and Hall’s explosiveness is expected to grow each week further removed from last year’s ACL injury. Still, questions remain about his workload so you are really banking on hitting big plays or an increase in touches.
• Raheem Mostert vs NYG: Achane has shot all the way up to RB2 this week! He may well have taken the “main” job over Mostert, but it’s been one bad week for Mostert after they both went off in Week 3. Are we so sure Mostert can’t still lead the way here?
• Joe Mixon at ARI: Behind the mess of the passing game, Mixon has quietly been playing good football as he maintains control of the backfield. ARI has really struggled against RBs to start the year, giving up 8 TDs already to the position. They can still both have strong games together, especially in the absence of Higgins, but provides some leverage off 1st-round Chase given that there have only been so many TDs to go around in this CIN offense to start the year.

WR:

Notable WRs missing from this slate: Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, Ceedee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Terry McClaurin, DJ Moore, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin

Notes:

• Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle vs NYG: I’ve basically been taking Dolphins in every lineup approach so far, trying to get at least one of these two or an RB on every team. Both are set up to feast against this weak, heavy-blitzing defense.
• Cooper Kupp vs PHI: Kupp is coming back to take his volume throne (health permitting). The discount on him is only decreasing by the day as positive news comes out about him playing. One of the most bankable players in fantasy when healthy.
• Deandre Hopkins at IND: Hasn’t had a big game yet, but he’s getting a great share of TEN passing work, and is further removed from the ankle injury. IND has been getting torched by wideouts all year and is good enough offensively to push TEN to score. Works well across from Anthony Richardson given that he’d still be a favorite to outscore Ryan Tannehill in a good Hopkins game.
• Zay Flowers at PIT: The Steelers secondary has been giving up huge games to WRs all year. Mark Andrews has historically been held in check by PIT. The other two starters are still questionable to play, and Flowers is the #1 guy regardless. 
• Jordan Addison vs KC: Has seen more time on the field when MIN is trailing, and playing against Mahomes with a bad defense is likely to create that scenario here. Has already shown a propensity for big plays, and KC has been allowing strong production to WR2s. Leverage off Jefferson going at #1, and can be fit across a KC stack.

TE:

Notable TEs missing from this slate: George Kittle, Evan Engram, Cole Kmet, Logan Thomas, Jake Ferguson

Notes:

• Travis Kelce at MIN: I want Kelce or Tyreek in every draft possible. Chance to be a slate where no other TE can compete with his score.
• TJ Hockenson vs KC: Second highest ceiling, good matchup/environment, great leverage off Jefferson when paired with Tyreek.
• Tyler Higbee vs PHI: PHI has been struggling against TEs, and Higbee has yet to score on the season despite strong usage. Kupp’s return means a lot of targets going his way, but also might open up the defense more for Higbee opportunities.
• Zach Ertz vs CIN: Seeing a lot of volume, a better matchup than the WRs.

Underowned Combos:

• Josh Dobbs + Zach Ertz + Ja’Marr Chase/Joe Mixon
• Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase + James Conner/Zach Ertz
• Anthony Richardson + Derrick Henry + Deandre Hopkins
• Tua Tagovailoa + RB + WR
• Jahmyr Gibbs + Sam LaPorta
• Breece Hall + Garrett Wilson/Tyler Conklin

Notable Stats

1st place performance:

• 27 of the 40 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 18 of the 40 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 36 of the 40 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

Stacking and Correlation:

• 22 of 40 had a QB paired with just one teammate
  • WR (17), TE (3), RB (2)
• 6 of 40 had a QB stacked with two teammates
  • WR-RB (3), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (1)
• 4 of those 28 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
• 39 of 40 had at least one game correlation
• 13 of 40 had two different game correlations

FLEX usage:

• 136 of 200 top-5 rosters have had two RBs (68%), meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
• The other 64 top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there has yet to be a single roster to place top 5 using double TE.

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!