Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest
Welcome to Week 4!
If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is how to access my article reviewing 2021 and 2022 top rosters:
This was an atypical weekly preview as it was more of a primer for the contest than about anything Week 1 specific; so if you’d like to access it, then that is the easiest way to do it.
For this week, I’ll be showing the top rosters of Week 3, updating some trending stats, and hitting on some of my thoughts on each position. Let’s get started!
Reviewing Week 3
Score
QB
RB
FLEX
WR
WR
TE
174.56
Herbert
Mostert
Walker
Keenan
Williams
Kelce
174.06
Herbert
Mostert
Walker
Keenan
Cooper
Kelce
173.66
Herbert
Mostert
Hill
Keenan
Williams
LaPorta
173.66
Herbert
Mostert
Hill
Keenan
Williams
LaPorta
173.62
Tua
Mostert
Walker
Keenan
Williams
Kelce
Notes:
Second QB-WR-WR double stack to ever win in 39 contests
QB stacking (27 of 39 winners) has not required runbacks (4 of the 27 stacks included an opposing player) to be successful to this point
The bigger this contest keeps becoming (nearly 70K in size now), the more necessary it becomes to have at least the two highest scoring players on the slate. With the condensed rosters and no salary cap, there are “fewer paths to victory” each week, making it even more valuable to take significant stands on players/situations.
Looking at Week 4
QB:
Notable QBs missing from slate: Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff
Top 6 by ADP: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson
Notes on some “Scroll-down QBs”:
Joe Burrow at TEN: Clearly not healthy, but may not need to be fully mobile to launch bombs all over this pass funnel defense. Two elite stacking partners.
Brock Purdy vs ARI: Not the highest ceiling QB, but highest team total of the slate, playing a team that has been surprisingly competitive, and has multiple elite stacking partners.
Anthony Richardson vs LAR: Demonstrated elite fantasy skills in his 5 quarters of play to start his career, playing a defense that has been better schemes than it has talent.
Justin Fields vs DEN: Still a much better fantasy player than real-life QB at this point, and now catches a defense that has been reeling for 6 quarters.
Russell Wilson vs CHI: DEN is actually favored here with a 24.5 team total and needs to play well after a historically poor showing. Wilson has 300 yards in two straight, scored 27 fantasy points in Week 2 (demonstrating some ceiling), and has two stacking partners at WR.
Jameis Winston vs TB: While I expect NO to try and continue to slow games down and not throw it all over the yard, TB defense under Bowles is still more of a pass funnel than a team to effectively run on. Kamara should give a boost to the short area passing game efficiency, and Olave and Shaheed can really stretch this defense on the backend.
CMC vs ARI: McCaffrey is the 1.01 this week in nearly every draft. Weak RB depth, loaded WR depth, no Kelce on slate, easy 1.01.
Josh Jacobs at LAC: Offense would be better if Jimmy G plays, but a good matchup and game environment in a super condensed offense (basically just 3 guys touching the ball).
Zack Moss vs LAR: Moss’s rush attempts in his last 6 games as a Colt: 24, 12, 15, 18, 18, 30. Moss’s 8 RZ touches lead the next closest teammate by 4 despite missing Week 1.
Javonte Williams vs CHI: DEN is a home favorite playing against a porous defense. Williams has yet to reach the usage we prefer to have, but this game sets up for him to get extra rush attempts.
Alexander Mattison at CAR: Easier to attack CAR on the ground, and he’s coming off a game of 20 rush attempts and 5 receptions vs LAC after two tough RB defenses prior. Akers has only been with the team for a week, so I’m willing to take the risk Mattison maintains full control for at least another week, given that both his teammates are drafted in the top 2 rounds and he’s not typically selected.
Najee Harris at HOU: While the HOU defense has improved, it’s still most attackable on the ground, already yielding 5 TDs to RBs through 3 games. Harris is losing some work to Warren, but he received 19 rush attempts last week and is still expected to be the leader for GL work. He’ll probably need to score 2 TDs to be valuable though.
WR:
Notable WRs missing from this slate: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Drake London, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Garrett Wilson
Whereas last week was missing an enormous chunk of the 1st-6th round WRs, this week has nearly every highly drafted fantasy WR on the slate. It’s already apparent with ADP, where 6 of the first 7 drafted players are WRs (10 of the first 15). My initial thoughts are that this week is going to require a bigger than average score to win with so many elite WRs here and set up in strong spots. I will likely be drafting a WR at FLEX a majority of the time given the state of each position this week. I’ll also be avoiding overstacking given the chances of a significant number of elite scores this week.
Just look at how many pairs in which at least one is likely to have a big day:
With how beat up the CAR secondary is, and how much more effective MIN has been passing, one of Jefferson, Jordan Addison, or TJ Hockenson is likely to score very well here.
One of Davante Adams, Jacobs, or Jakobi Meyers is likely to have a big game against a bad Chargers defense, but having Jimmy G play would be best for all.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins vs the TEN secondary should be set up for plenty of big opportunities.
AJ Brown and Devonta Smith face a WAS secondary prone to deep ball success, something Brown and Smith will both get chances to exploit.
If Ekeler continues to miss, one of Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, or Gerald Everett should put up a valuable score against an exploitable Raiders secondary.
Concerns remain on the LAR offensive line, but Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell have been soaking up all the Rams pass-game usage, and now face a defense consistently being attacked in the secondary.
The 49ers trio of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all benefit from extra looks when one of the three is missing, and Deebo has yet to practice this week. SF has the highest total on the slate.
Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton face a bad CHI defense on a team implied for 24.5 points and needing a bounceback after a historic loss.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell face a tough PIT defense, but that is exploitable through the secondary. There are some legitimate concerns about Stroud and the HOU offensive line against this fierce PIT pass rush, but there is definite upside here for these guys going undrafted.
So what to do with all those WR options this week? I want to try and mix and match them as much as possible, finding ways to leverage the ones I don’t have. So for guys getting drafted near each other and almost never paired, grabbing the other’s teammate to further bet on your selected guy outperforming the other (i.e. Jefferson and Tyreek and Chase are rarely able to be taken together, so looking at adding Higgins and/or Hockenson on Tyreek rosters).
TE:
Notable TEs missing from this slate: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts
Notes:
George Kittle and TJ Hockenson are the clear top options here, especially with 49ers WRs dealing with injuries and a matchup with ARI on tap for Kittle.
Gerald Everett has a chance to see an uptick in usage with Mike Williams going down and Ekeler still missing.
Cole Kmet is the only one I’d want to stack with Fields; DEN defense has been very weak.
Juwan Johnson plays all game and always comes with multi-TD upside
Underowned Combos:
Justin Herbert + Josh Palmer/Gerald Everett + Jakobi Meyers
