Battle Royale 13.23

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

Welcome to Week 13!

If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is my review of the top Battle Royale rosters in 2021 and 2022.

Keeping with the format change of last week, I am highlighting the stacks I will be targeting this week in drafts, as that is arguably the most important decision for each roster. I’ll also provide some thoughts on other players I’m interested in, and then finish by updating some trending stats for the main contest. Let’s get started!

The reason we are always preaching “scroll down” is because once ADP forms early in the week, not much changes outside of a couple of guys that are usually related to midweek injury/role news. So, that means many people are drafting the “same way,” falling into similar buckets of player combinations, leaving guys outside that top 36 far less owned relative to those above them for not much more reason than a slightly higher projection. For example, guys like Thielen and Pickens are going almost undrafted right now despite a projection difference of 1-2 points from others in the top 36 getting drafted almost every time. Every week there are some underowned guys that are available at the end of drafts that can help you win a tournament, as the 6-person drafting means you aren’t having to find $3k DraftKings priced players just to be unique.

Looking at Week 13

Very similar to last week, the pickings are slim on the main slate. Low totals, lack of elite QBs, injury question marks, etc. all make for a fun slate to keep being unique and scrolling down. Doubling up on MIA and SF offenses is one of my favorite ways to play this Week 13 slate.

Stacks I’m Targeting:

6-Person Drafts

Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown, Devonta Smith vs SF:

• If Goedert remains out, expect a bump to Smith’s usage in a matchup that filters production to wideouts relative to the other positions. If you’re lucky enough to get a Hurts-AJB combo, jump on it because it won’t happen often. Playing Hurts naked across from 49ers is also a way to play this game, saying the Niners players put up stronger scores but Hurts is still able to outscore Purdy (likely through his legs).

Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane:

• If Hill plays, this is an absolute smash spot, making him my 1.01 on the week over CMC. WAS has been one of the worst pass defenses in football and Hill has run wild on the type of coverage they deploy. If unable to get this combo though, MIA should confidently score an abundance of points here, making Waddle and Achane (with his pass-catching role) interesting pairings with Tua themselves. MIA’s offense has a real chance to separate greatly from every other team on the slate, making double-stacks an option as well, especially in the scenario that WAS’s pass-happy offense is able to score some points of their own.

Brock Purdy + 49er(s) @ PHI:

• Purdy can realistically be stacked with any 1 or 2 of his teammates here, as the offense is so concentrated between these 4 main skill players that this environment can provide multiple big scores. We should expect an uptick in pass attempts against this PHI defense that has been crushed through the air in 2023, with Aiyuk and Deebo having the best matchups to exploit. Pairing Purdy with two 49ers is something not enough drafters will do and is a strong way to get unique without sacrificing upside on this slate.

12-Person Drafts

Baker Mayfield + Mike Evans vs CAR:

• Mike Evans last 6 games vs CAR: 9:96 / 7:104:1 / 6:77:1 / 6:89:2 / 9:96 / 10:207:3
• While CAR have been easier to attack on the ground, secondary injuries have continued to leave them vulnerable through the air as well. Almost all of the aforementioned Evans games came with Brady quarterbacking, but Evans has still shown this year he can put up big scores with Mayfield at QB. Evans has 3 games over 22 fantasy points this year and could very well add another here. Mayfield is unlikely to be the top scoring QB on the slate, but given the lack of many strong options this week, he can certainly put up the type of score in the later rounds that helps you win.

Derek Carr + Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara vs DET:

• Olave’s major questions regarding availability due to concussion protocol could hold his ADP down all week and he is certainly riskier because of this. But if he plays, he should once again dominate targets (MT and Shaheed out) against a defense that has been really struggling against the pass. Whether or not Olave plays, but surely even more if he doesn’t, Kamara should see plentiful targets in a game NO will likely trail. Our evidence this season in those games points to Carr dumping it off all day to Kamara, which is exactly the kind of game script and environment that raises Kamara’s fantasy ceiling.

Others to Target

Adam Thielen @ TB:

• Well, last week certainly didn’t go as hoped, with TEN blanketing Thielen all day long while the CAR offense continued to struggle. Reich has since been fired, leaving a lot of questions of what to expect of this offense down the stretch. Thielen has been Young’s best target all year, and while TB could certainly clamp down this offense as well, their pass defense still leaves a lot to be desired. Taking anyone from this offense comes with a lot of risk, but given that he’s going undrafted and has already demonstrated considerable ceiling this year, he will be someone I look to take when I want a WR at the end of drafts (especially across TB players).

Michael Pittman, Josh Downs @ TEN:

• TEN shut down the CAR offense and blanketed Thielen last week, but a more capable IND offense should be able to once again find success in this matchup via their WRs that continue to dominate targets from Minshew. Pittman’s target count in the last 5 games reads 14, 5, 13, 8, 12. Outside of the games he dealt with injury mid-game, Downs has recent target counts of 6, 8, 6, 9, 13. It’s certainly possible IND will find success against this defense through Zack Moss again, but the pass defense of TEN is still the weaker spot and without Taylor, the usage should be even more concentrated on this offense.

Rachaad White vs CAR:

• CAR continues to get picked on on the ground, setting up another strong matchup for White to take advantage of as the leader of this backfield. White has just one game all season (11 vs DET) with less than 16 opportunities (att+tg).

Jaylen Warren, George Pickens vs ARI:

• ARI continues to be a defense that can be attacked on the ground and through the air, setting it up for at least one of the PIT players to have a strong game here. Najee Harris has not relinquished his share of the backfield with solid play, but a week after Warren drafters were disappointed, the matchup is even sweeter vs ARI for him to pop for some big runs. Pickens gets a much easier matchup than he had last week vs CIN, and it’s clear removing Matt Canada is an overall plus for this offense given the performance last week. The main concern is going to be Pickett’s attempt volume due to ARI’s glaring weakness on the ground, but this is a great spot for Pickens to pop at extremely low ownership.

Tight Ends:

Dalton Schultz vs DEN:

• Lost some route participation in Brevin Jordan’s return last week, but his matchup sets up much better than the HOU WRs.

Pat Freiermuth vs ARI:

• Fresh off his best game in quite a long time, he gets another great matchup in a spot PIT should have plenty of ways to score.

Juwan Johnson vs DET:

• Injuries aplenty among the NOR WRs, and he has seen 15 targets over the last 3 weeks. Strong red zone threat, good matchup, likely elevated passing game script.

Notable Stats

These are some notable stats from rosters appearing in the top 5 of the contest so far this season.

1st place performance:

• 33 of the 48 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 20 of the 48 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 44 of the 48 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

Stacking and Correlation:

• 28 of 48 had a QB paired with just one teammate
  • WR (21), TE (5), RB (2)
• 7 of 48 had a QB stacked with two teammates
  • WR-RB (4), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (1)
• 5 of those 35 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
• 47 of 48 had at least one game correlation
• 14 of 48 had two different game correlations

FLEX usage:

• 158 of 240 top-5 rosters have had two RBs, meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
• 81 of the other top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there’s only been one instance of double-TE to ever finish top-5 (2023 W7: Kelce/Andrews). 

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!