Battle Royale 12.23

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

Welcome to Week 12!

If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is my review of the top Battle Royale rosters in 2021 and 2022.

I am changing up the format this week, as the old one was starting to feel stale. Instead of going position by position, I am highlighting all the stacks I will be targeting this week in drafts, as that is arguably the most important decision for each roster. I’ll also provide some thoughts on other players I’m interested in, and then finish by updating some trending stats for the main contest. Let’s get started!

Looking at Week 12

Lots of offenses off the slate for Thanksgiving week, so the pickings are slim on the main slate. Low totals and fewer teams are usually an advantage for us and our ability to get unique. Like last week, the RBs especially are more attractive late than the ones going early, so don’t be afraid to scroll down!

Stacks I’m Targeting:

Big Dogs

Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce @ LV:

• This is an extremely difficult stack to acquire due to ADPs, but I’m including it anyway because sometimes you get the right draft room for it to work out. Kelce has a significant projection edge over the other TEs on this slate, putting him in play for the 1.01. If you are able to achieve this stack, the two of them come with extremely positively correlated ceilings and provide a great roster foundation at the two onesie positions.

Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs vs PHI:

• Another very difficult stack to obtain, but has sometimes been available near the 1st/2nd round turn this week. PHI has been getting killed by the league’s best receivers, and paired with Allen provides one of the highest ceiling stacks available.

Jalen Hurts + Devonta Smith @ BUF:

• With Dallas Goedert hurt, more looks should be fed Smith’s way in this already concentrated offense. BUF’s defense has been getting further banged up all year long, and Smith is currently being drafted in the 4th round. Hurts with AJ Brown is obviously great, but usually even more difficult to attain than Mahomes-Kelce.

Tier 2

CJ Stroud + Tank Dell vs JAC:

• This stack has popped off multiple times this year and it remains a nice target here against a JAC defense that has allowed solid passing production to WRs all year (including to these two). Acquiring this stack should mean you got one of the big 3 flex players (Kelce, Diggs, AJB), and still provides you with one of the highest ceiling stacks available despite not having one of the 3 big dogs at QB. Both are currently going in the 3rd round and beyond.

Kyler Murray + Trey McBride vs LAR:

• McBride has 16 targets in Kyler’s first two games and now gets a defense that has allowed 4 TEs of 40+ yards and a TD (plus 4:62 from McBride already when Ertz was still playing). Murray is averaging 321.7 yards in his last 3 games vs LAR, and his rushing ability still provides him with a ceiling that can compete with the 3 big dogs.

12-Person Drafts

Gardner Minshew + Michael Pittman vs TB:

• TB continues to be a pass funnel defense under Bowles, already allowing 5 games of 300+ passing yards. While IND will want to run, and likely still find some success on the ground as they have in other tough rushing matchups, we should expect an uptick in pass attempts for Minshew here. All 3 of his main receivers are healthy coming out of the bye, and despite some tough matchups, Pittman’s target count in the last 5 games reads 14, 5, 13, 8, 12. TB has allowed 7 WRs to top 100 receiving yards already.

Baker Mayfield + Rachaad White @ IND:

• While IND has definitely performed more admirably on defense of late, 2023 Mayfield is more in the Carr tier of QBs than the PJ Walker, Bryce Young, and Mac Jones tier. Carr managed to throw for 300+ yards and 2 TDs, while his best stacking partners were Kamara and Shaheed. Evans can certainly perform well here and will be a player to target himself but White has a similar role to Kamara in that he is used in both the run and pass game, and that is where IND has been more susceptible of late. Game stacks involving players from both sides here will be one of my targets in the 12-person drafts (and some 6-person as well).

Desmond Ridder + Kyle Pitts, Drake London vs NOR:

• Ridder has been announced as the starter for the rest of the season and returns to play at home, where all 3 of his strong fantasy scores have come. NOR is a good defense, but has been struggling lately (and throughout the Dennis Allen defense era) with mobile QBs. Ridder may not be a runner like the others they’ve faced, but he’s still a capable scrambler and has 4 games of 7+ rushing fantasy points already. While London is certainly the more consistent player, Pitts gets a NOR defense that has been getting abused by TEs and doesn’t need as big of a score at the TE spot to help you win. Marshon Lattimore’s absence makes London much more interesting, but he still likely needs a high-end passing volume game from Ridder to help you win. Still, in 12-person drafts, these are one of the few late-round pairings you can acquire cheap when missing out on the big dogs and looking for a combo with upside.

Others to Target

Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams @ ARI:

• If Kupp misses this game, we can expect extremely heavy usage for Puka Nacua against a struggling secondary that continues to provide tournament-winning scores for WRs and RBs. Williams, who if he gets back to pre-injury usage, is a smash play once again against a defense he lit up for 158 yards in his last game. Lead RB rush attempts vs ARI by week: 19, 17, 23, 20, 25, 20, 26, 19, 20, 22, 22.

Derrick Henry vs CAR:

• King Henry has faced a series of tough matchups, and this is probably the best spot he’s had all year. Playing against stacked boxes is nothing new for Henry, so despite the rookie QB, he is someone who can pop for a big game with multiple TDs here. He currently goes in the 5th round.

Dalton Kincaid @ PHI:

• Kincaid is probably my favorite TE on the slate after Kelce, and he’s the best stacking partner with Allen after Diggs. PHI’s defensive pass struggles have not been limited to WRs, as multiple TEs have popped in this spot. Currently, Engram and McBride are taken before him and he’s being drafted in the 5th round. Especially in 12-person drafts in which Allen-Diggs isn’t possible, Kincaid will be someone I definitely target if taking Allen in the 1st.

Adam Thielen @ TEN:

• Thielen has five games already this year of 10+ targets, and TEN has bled production to WRs all year long. His recent production has him going in the last round to start the week, but he’s shown an elite ceiling in this offense given the volume he receives. Undrafted Ridley vs TEN helped win this tournament last week after a string of unproductive games, and this setup comes with the possibility of the same outcome for Thielen.

Rhamondre Stevenson @ NYG:

• The NYG defense has allowed several big RB scores throughout the season, and while Stevenson still shares more work with Elliott than we’d like, he’s the leader of this backfield and the far superior talent at this point in their careers. He showed his breakaway ability against WAS, and his usage in both the run and pass game provides the opportunity for a strong game here. He’s free in the last round.

12-Person Drafts

Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris @ CIN:

• Great matchup vs CIN on the ground, and a potential big time of possession edge here if Browning struggles in his first start. Najee is actually much cheaper in these drafts despite still holding a significant role in this backfield, especially close to the endzone.

Gabe Davis @ PHI:

• Goes late in drafts due to his inconsistency, but gets a struggling pass defense in an explosive game environment while being very positively correlated with his QB’s ceiling.

Josh Downs vs TB:

• Before getting hurt, had target counts of 6, 8, 6, 9 and three games over 70 yards in that four game stretch. Pass funnel defense.

Notable Stats

These are some notable stats from rosters appearing in the top 5 of the contest so far this season.

1st place performance:

• 32 of the 47 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 20 of the 47 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 43 of the 47 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

Stacking and Correlation:

• 27 of 47 had a QB paired with just one teammate
  • WR (20), TE (5), RB (2)
• 7 of 47 had a QB stacked with two teammates
  • WR-RB (4), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (1)
• 5 of those 34 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
• 46 of 47 had at least one game correlation
• 14 of 47 had two different game correlations

FLEX usage:

• 155 of 235 top-5 rosters have had two RBs, meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
• 79 of the other top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there’s only been one instance of double-TE to ever finish top-5 (2023 W7: Kelce/Andrews). 

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!