Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
OWS Fam —
Happy Thanksgiving! Happy “Black Friday”!!!!
Black Friday, 2023: 50%-80% off pretty much everything, including…
And more!
I also want to hammer the fact that NBA Props profit is up to $1,448…and the price of the package (for Black Friday) is down to $599. There are seven months of NBA remaining. There are only 37 spots remaining.
37 spots(!)
37 spots(!)
37 spots(!)
You can pay monthly (four months at $150 apiece; retain access through the end of NBA!), and lock up a spot.
All Black Friday deals expire at the end of Monday Night Football.
What an unbelievable season it’s been.
There were too many binks and big finishes from the OWS Fam this last weekend to shout out all of them here, but I want to particularly shout out mit846 for taking down over $80,000 this last weekend, and also want to shout out mcron05 and FelixChar for continuing the 2023 OWS domination of The Slant. Mcron05 took down the OWS Fam’s second Slant win of the season, while FelixChar grabbed his fifth top-12 finish in The Slant across eight weeks of MME play.
(Reminder: $39 rest-of-season Bink Machine!!! Start applying the MME lessons we’ve been hitting on throughout the year!)
The DFS fun doesn’t end with Thanksgiving. We also have a 10-game Main Slate on tap, with a really unique setup!
Incredibly, there are only three teams on the Main Slate implied to score more than 23.5 points, and eight of the 20 teams on this slate are implied to score 18.5 or fewer points.
This is the kind of slate it is:
In terms of EPA (expected points added) per play, this slate gives us nine of the 13 worst defenses in the NFL…but eight of those nine teams are playing against offenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL in EPA/play, and the only defense facing an opponent that doesn’t rank in the bottom half is Carolina…taking on a Tennessee offense that ranks one spot outside the bottom half. Said differently: mediocre and bad defenses on Sunday are playing mediocre and bad offenses…
…and this means that where we have good offenses playing, they are generally playing against good defenses.
Critically, however, this is a setup that can do one of two things: either A) this can squeeze down the slate in such a way that nothing really stands out, or B) this can present a setup in which only a handful of spots really stand out. And to me, this week falls into that second category — which is my favorite type of week.
I don’t want to spend too much time focused on the Main Slate, as most of you won’t have much focus or attention in that area just yet, but one thing I do want to highlight early is the fact that of the five highest expected pass play rates on the weekend, four are in games against each other, with Buffalo and Philadelphia each carrying high expected pass play rates and playing one another, and with Jacksonville and Houston carrying moderately high expected pass play rates and playing one another.
In addition to this, we have (as an example of the type of slate it is) 13 expected starting quarterbacks priced at $5.5k or below on DraftKings (i.e., “13 expected starting quarterbacks that DraftKings is telling us we shouldn’t have a ton of confidence in), and among the other seven quarterbacks (Hurts // Mahomes // Allen // Stroud // Kyler // Lawrence // Stafford), five have combined for a grand total of three games all season north of 26 DraftKings points (Mahomes, Stroud, and Lawrence each have one such game apiece; Stafford and early-appearances Kyler have none). Not to get too far ahead of ourselves…but we may as well note here that Allen (four) and Hurts (four) have combined for eight such games, and — of course — are playing one another.
With Thanksgiving putting a lot of content providers and DFS players behind the eight ball, this is a great slate to be on top of. It’s a slate that sets up well for us.
I’m very much looking forward to it.
Enjoy the Black Friday deals(!).
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboard throughout the week.
-JM
