Afternoon-Only 4.24

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 4 Overview

Four games on this slate and one of them clearly stands out from the others. Washington and Arizona are highly likely to see a good deal of yardage and points, which is something we will have to account for but also something that the entire field will be thinking about. This creates a situation where figuring out which of the other games can turn into a shootout or a blowout will be key. The other three games all have a wide range of outcomes and could be 16-13 slugfests, low excitement 20-6 type games, or games where the superior team dominates 31-7 (all just example scores, you get the point). I think it is very viable to just ignore players from the Patriots, Raiders, and Chargers if you want and build with the idea that WAS/ARI lives up to the hype while the other games are non-competitive. One other thing to note is the status of Deebo Samuel will have a big impact on the slate. If he plays, the 49ers boat racing the Patriots becomes far more likely. That would also impact the target distribution for the 49ers, though, so it’s something we need to watch closely and listen for reports while getting the inactive reports as soon as they are released.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section: