Afternoon-only 18.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Week 18 Overview

IT IS HERE. Week 18. The best Afternoon slate of the season. A whopping seven games this year and all the chaos of the final week of the season with playoff positioning, player incentives, coaching narratives, and all the other fun stuff that makes this slate so unique. Here is a quick, game-by-game look at what we are dealing with::

• NYJ @ BUF – The Jets have been playing historically bad defense and their offense is inept, while Breece Hall has now been shut down as well. The Bills are currently the 7th seed, but can jump the Chargers (who are resting their key players against Denver) if they win. They would also jump the Texans if they lose to the Colts in the early window, which Buffalo will know prior to their kickoff. Josh Allen is likely only playing a few snaps, while Mitchell Trubisky likely handles the rest. It is hard to say how much other key players like James Cook will play, but they should certainly be playing this game to win and have a terrific matchup.
• DET @ CHI – The Lions are eliminated from the playoffs and have shut down several defenders and two offensive linemen. Nonetheless, we should expect Dan Campbell to bring everything he’s got. The Bears need a win or an Eagles loss to lock themselves into the #2 seed. The Eagles are resting a bunch of key players, so there is some risk that if Chicago falls behind but sees the Eagles losing handily they could shut it down. That scenario likely wouldn’t be clear until late in the game anyways, however.
• WAS @ PHI – The Eagles will be showcasing backup QB Tanner McKee in this game against a porous Commanders defense. It’s hard to say who has the advantage there between a bad defense and a backup offense, but there is certainly a wide range of outcomes. On the other side, the Commanders offense carries some intrigue against the Eagles defense, which will also be resting several key players.
• ARI @ LAR – This game’s outlook changed drastically when the Seahawks won on Saturday night. We should now expect the Rams to approach this basically like a normal game as the value of getting the 5-seed is very high for them. Their main offensive weapons will be Puka and Kyren, who now have massive ceilings. There is also a scenario where those two play, but the Rams limit their touches if/when they get a lead. Stacks around this game became very interesting once the Rams motivation was locked in.
• LAC @ DEN – The Chargers are resting their main players, including QB Justin Herbert. Trey Lance is cheap and can run the ball, while WR Keenan Allen has incentives he has been vocal about trying to hit. The Broncos need a win to lock up the #1 seed and are not shy about running scores up when they get the chance. I feel like Denver could keep its foot on the gas if they get a lead as a sort of tune-up for the playoffs, with next week likely being a bye.
• KC @ LVR – Well, if you ever wondered what would happen if we saw a Chris Oladokun vs. Kenny Pickett showdown, this is the game for you. The main storylines here will be the Raiders holding onto the #1 pick and the Chiefs trying to end Travis Kelce’s career (potentially) on a high note.
• MIA @ NE – The Dolphins had a huge upset of the Bucs last week, but this is different. Playing on the road against the Patriots and they will be without Achane, Waller, and possibly Waddle. This is a spot that sets up poorly for the Dolphins and we should expect the Patriots to have their foot on the gas early. There is potential for this to be a blowout and New England to pull back, but Drake Maye MVP votes might keep them pushing later into this game.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position, and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section: