Afternoon-Only 18.22

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

A Week Unlike Any Other

The final week of the NFL season presents so many more different dynamics than a usual NFL week and the Afternoon Slate is especially tricky. Every game has potential playoff implications and three of the games have “motivations” that are correlated with the results of one of those games. Be sure to build smart, correlated lineups that make sense and check in on late news when inactives and reports for these games are released, as things will be changing throughout the day.

QB Strategy

• Jalen Hurts should be extremely popular on the shorter slate with all the value available and Josh Allen and Joe Burrow being removed from the pool.
• Geno Smith and Russell Wilson make sense in the next tier as guys with fine matchups, reasonable price tags, and no “motivation” or playing time questions.
• Purdy and Prescott should generate some interest on the shorter slate as their offenses should score a lot of points.
• The rest of the crew is basically dart throws, but it wouldn’t be shocking if one of these guys were to score 18-22 points at a low price tag, on a day that is sure to have some surprises.

My guess on final ownership:

• Jalen Hurts – 25-40%
• Geno Smith and Russell Wilson – 12-20% each
• Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott – 8-12%
• Sam Howell, Davis Webb, Baker Mayfield, and David Blough – 2-7%
• Justin Herbert – 1-3%

Defense Strategy

• The high priced 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys defenses are all facing lame-duck teams with nothing to play for that are severely overmatched on paper. Due to all of the extra value available today, they should all be relatively popular and account for a much larger percentage of lineups than a usual week. From an “expected outcome” perspective, those top defenses all present great cases for being used, and it is hard to see any of them “failing,” while also being likely that at least one of them puts up a 13-18 point game.
• On the flip side of that, the Cardinals and Giants defenses are very cheap and will be low owned but it is extremely hard to see them succeeding given their respective situations.
• The Commanders defense is very interesting to me this week, as they are a talented and competitive unit and the Cowboys could be given reason to rest players early in this game. Also, the Cowboys starting unit has been mistake prone at times, so they could make some plays regardless of the situation.
• The Seahawks and Rams defenses are interesting in a game that should be relatively competitive and seems likely to go overlooked.
• The Chargers defense becomes intriguing against Russell Wilson and the Broncos, if Baltimore were to win in the early window and force the Chargers to play with full motivation.
• The Broncos defense will likely be the popular low priced option on the slate against a Chargers team expected to rest players.

HOW I’M APPROACHING EACH GAME

Be sure to check the NFL Edge game breakdowns for deeper dives into these games, but here are some afternoon specific thoughts.