Afternoon-Only 15.23

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

FINDING AN EDGE

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Week 15 Slate

• Only three games on this week’s slate, but wow are they good ones. 
• The Rams and 49ers are in such elite spots as offenses that I’m likely to have at least one player from each team on every roster that I make for the Main Slate, so suffice it to say that I’ll be loading up on them on this slate as well.
• DAL/BUF is the game that could go a lot of different directions and has the most uncertainty around it. It could be a low-scoring close game, as both defenses are solid and the weather will be cold. It could be a high-scoring close game, as we know both offenses can be explosive and they could push each other. It could also be a bit of a “blowout” in either direction, as we have seen each of these teams and QBs fail in big games at various points over the last couple of years. 
• Ultimately, how that DAL/BUF game plays out, and which cheaper players from ARI and/or WAS put up usable scores are likely to be the variables that determine the winners on this slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

QB Strategy