Afternoon-only 14.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 14 Overview

We have another three game slate this week, which will be our last one this small all season. Next week is a five game Afternoon slate, followed by a four game slate in Week 16, and then Week 17 and 18 are usually very big slates relative to what we see most of the season. Just something to keep in mind going forward, as next week’s five game slate is essentially 67% larger than this week’s slate and is therefore an entirely different animal. Here are some things that stand out to me on this short slate:

• The Broncos defense is in a spot where they could post a score that totally blows the other five away and becomes a clear must-have, similar to what we saw last week from Seattle. 
• At the tight end position, Trey McBride and Brock Bowers are both likely to be very popular on this slate, but there are some cheap tight ends in very good spots who I think could score 12 to 18 points. I would expect about 70% of rosters to use one of these two tight ends, while about 25% of rosters use neither of them. This leaves us with a situation where the 5% of rosters that use BOTH are an interesting way to build. Likewise, among the 25% of rosters that use neither of Bowers or McBride, I would expect very few two-tight-end rosters. Basically, what I am saying is that most rosters will have one of these two, and almost all two-tight-end rosters will have one of them. So, from a game theory perspective, playing both of them together or playing two of the cheap tight ends makes a ton of sense.
• The wide receiver position is kind of crazy this week, as Puka and Davante are the only options above $5,600, and they are respectively priced at $8,700 and $7,700. It is rare to have such a wide gap among the top players at the position, and especially at wide receiver.
• The CHI/GB game seems likely to be overlooked as the Broncos are in such a smash spot, and the LAR/ARI game is (rightfully) going to be the first game people gravitate towards.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section: