Afternoon-Only 14.24

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 14 Overview

A three-game afternoon slate for the FOURTH straight week as the main slate itself is smaller with only 10 games. Once again, in large field tournaments, we need to find ways to differentiate our lineups to have any sort of win equity. The best ways that I have found to do this are:

1. Choosing a very low-owned play to start your lineup and then building backward from there. The players I am seeing on this slate who could fit that bill are Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett, and Rome Odunze. All are tough to trust and take a leap of faith on, but all play relatively large roles for their respective offenses and a big week would not be shocking in any way. Amari can be paired with Josh Allen, and if you add another Bills pass catcher, you can really get unique and bet on the team with the highest implied total on the slate. Lockett’s salary is wildly low for the big games we know he is capable of. Odunze is going to hit at some point and if it’s this week on a short slate you can get paid off BIG TIME.
2. Leaving salary on the table. There are too many options on a main slate to justify leaving $1,000 to $1,500 of salary on the table, as somewhere in your lineup you are very likely putting yourself at too big of a disadvantage to overcome. On the short slate, it’s much more viable. The best way I’ve found to get there is to build a lineup using most or all of the salary and then look for the player you are least confident in and scroll down from him for a much cheaper player you feel has a similar outlook.
3. Full onslaught in one game – with up to 4 players (and maybe a defense as well) from one team and a couple from their opponent, or even 3 and 3. Isaac Guerendo and Zach Charbonnet will carry extreme levels of ownership, but the scenarios where each of them has a great game likely coincide with their offense as a whole doing very well. Therefore, Purdy stacks with Guerendo and one or two other 49ers as well as two Bears players make a ton of sense to me. The flip side of that game with Caleb Williams could also be a double or triple stack and then Guerendo and another 49ers WR/TE tied to that roster. From the Seattle game, Charbonnet is more trusted as a pass catcher and pass blocker than he is depended on as a runner. Therefore, we could see the Seahawks pass rate go through the roof and a Seattle onslaught could pay off big time.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section: