Afternoon-Only 12.23

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

FINDING AN EDGE

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

This Week’s Slate

• Back to a four game slate this week which makes things very interesting from a player pool and strategy perspective.
• There are three clear tiers of game environments within the slate as CLE/DEN is clearly the bottom tier and BUF/PHI is the obvious “premium” spot. Meanwhile, the LAR/ARI and KC/LVR games have middling totals and uncertain pace of play situations.
• Three of the four games have point spreads within a field goal, while the one game with a large spread (KC/LVR) features a favorite whose offense has fallen flat on its face in the second half of three consecutive games.
• The Chiefs game stands out from a strategy perspective as the most popular spot on the slate will be Buffalo/Philadelphia and the current narrative on Kansas City is that their offense is broken.
• This is a unique slate in that I think playing a “naked” QB is far more viable than usual because of the structure of pricing and the games available.
• All of the available running backs are within a similar pricing tier ($5,600 to $4,800), while all of the viable wide receivers are either below $5,500 or above $7,000. Due to this, most rosters will look extremely similar in terms of “how” they are built. This also puts added leverage on the tight end and defense positions.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

QB Strategy