Afternoon-Only 11.23

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

FINDING AN EDGE

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

This Week’s Slate

• Only three games in the Afternoon Slate this week, which condenses things and makes it harder to separate from the field but also creates a situation where many roster constructions that are sub-optimal on a larger slate now become viable.
• Playing a defense with an offensive stack of a team becomes more viable as the slate gets smaller. If the 49ers smash the Bucs, a Purdy double stack could very well perform at a high level while the 49ers defense also lands in the optimal lineup. The Bills are also a candidate for a similar situation, as it wouldn’t be totally shocking for Josh Allen to have a blow-up game and the defense to tee off on Zach Wilson as he tries to keep up.
• On the flip side of that, the Bucs and Jets defenses are the cheapest options on the slate and in tough situations…..but playing them in lineups with stacks from their opposing offense is very viable. An early defensive touchdown from either team could spur their opponent’s offense into turbo-mode and set off a scoring explosion. Sure, they likely wouldn’t post a huge score then but a 9 to 12 point game (eight points for a turnover leading to a touchdown alone) from the lowest salary at the position sure would open up a lot of things.
• Tyler Lockett’s status will be something to closely monitor after he missed practice all week and is listed as questionable. From a game theory perspective, the best situation may actually be if he is active because then all three Seahawks wide receivers will likely have their ownership held in check. Lockett’s unknown health will keep people off of him, while Metcalf and JSN won’t see the massive surge in ownership that they would have if Lockett doesn’t play.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

QB Strategy