Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest
The goal of this article is to present you with information and strategy about a different-style DFS tournament that is not currently as strategically optimized as traditional DFS due to its infancy as a contest style.
If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, I will show you how to access my article reviewing 2021 and 2022 top rosters:
This was an atypical weekly preview as it was more of a primer for the contest than about anything Week 1 specific; so if you’d like to access it then that is the easiest way to do it.
For this week, I’ll be reviewing the top roster of Week 1, updating some trending stats, and hitting on some of my thoughts on each position. Let’s get started!
Reviewing Week 1
Score
QB
RB
FLEX
WR
WR
TE
137.74
Tua
A Jones
Bijan
Tyreek
Ridley
Hockenson
137.24
Tua
A Jones
Etienne
Tyreek
Ridley
Pitts
135.94
Tua
CMC
Etienne
Tyreek
Ridley
Pitts
133.34
Tua
A Jones
Henry
Tyreek
Ridley
Hockenson
132.72
Herbert
A Jones
Ekeler
Tyreek
Olave
Hockenson
Let’s take a look at the strategy employed by the winning lineup:
Draft Order: Tyreek Hill – Bijan Robinson – Calvin Ridley – TJ Hockenson – Aaron Jones – Tua Tagovailoa
1st: Hill was one of the top options on the slate (almost always went from picks 2-4) in the best projected game environment.
2nd: Robinson, a home favorite and recent top-10 draft pick, projected for high volume in a favorable matchup.
3rd: Ridley was starting the year as Trevor Lawrence’s new #1 against a projected weak secondary, a role that yielded high scores to lesser players Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in 2022.
Note: Now has rostered two of the highest projected volume WRs and an RB with a projected role on the ground and air. No correlation yet, but Tua and possibly Lawrence are still available to this point.
4th: Hockenson projected as the highest-scoring TE on the slate with the injury to Mark Andrews. With Hill being taken in the Justin Jefferson range, any Hockenson points that take away from JJ benefit Hill and the roster as a whole.
5th: Jones was going late in drafts due to the uncertainty of the GB offense as a whole, but the absence of Christian Watson opened up extra receiving work (similar to the boost Jones would get when Davante Adams missed time).
Note: Finishes off the flex spots with a second RB, something that had been successful in 69% of top-5 lineups to this point. Lawrence is almost assuredly gone by this point, but Tua had been going late or undrafted the entire week. Drafter likely aiming for a Tua-Hill stack or Kirk Cousins-Hockenson stack at this point.
6th: Tua is selected to pair with Tyreek Hill, a combo that yielded high totals of 77.4, 54.7, and 47.9 in 2022.
Drafter took advantage of a lower-scoring week overall for a big win. Driven by the skinny Tua-Hill stack, the rest of the roster was surrounded by players who projected for some of the best volume at their respective positions.
Note: Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and Austin Ekeler combined for only two appearances across the 20 possible spots despite outscoring every player on the slate save Hill and Jones. Doesn’t require the optimal lineup to win this contest.
Notable Stats
Average 1st place performance (Half-PPR Points):
Roster: 156.24
QB: 32.45
Low Flex: 19.02
High Flex: 34.16
TE: 19.09
1st place performance:
25 of the 37 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
15 of the 37 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
33 of the 37 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points
FLEX usage:
129 of 185 top-5 rosters have had two RBs (69.7%), meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
The other 56 top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there was not a single roster to place top 5 using double TE.
Stacking and Correlation:
22 of 37 had a QB paired with just one teammate
WR (17), TE (3), RB (2)
4 of 37 had a QB stacked with two teammates
WR-RB (3), WR-WR (1)
4 of those 26 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
36 of 37 had at least one game correlation
13 of 37 had two different game correlations
Looking at Week 2
QB:
Notable QBs missing from slate: Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers
Top 6 by ADP: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow
Notes:
Based on recency bias and injuries, QBs are slipping this week. Mahomes with Travis Kelce and Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs are both possible stacks right now, which is notable since both have typically been rare over the years due to ADP.
Lamar and Burrow both had poor Week 1 outings for different reasons, but both obviously come with slate-winning ceilings and are going in the last rounds. This game environment (BAL @ CIN) has a wide range of outcomes.
Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson are often going undrafted, despite two of the highest floors and ceilings at the position with their abilities rushing the ball.
Jared Goff is going undrafted despite the 4th highest team total on the slate in a team matchup that has finished 48-45 and 51-29 in the last two years of Dan Campbell vs. Pete Carroll.
Daniel Jones is going undrafted in a far softer matchup than last week, can be easily paired with Darren Waller, and has showcased a high ceiling with Daboll (4 games of 27+ points in 2022).
RB:
Notable RBs missing from this slate: Nick Chubb, Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Alexander Mattison, Raheem Mostert, Jamaal Williams, Miles Sanders
Top 10 by ADP: Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, Travis Etienne, Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kenneth Walker
Notes:
Ekeler is Questionable and is slipping in drafts. Not the easiest matchup on the ground, but can score through the air as well. He will only rise with positive news on his ankle injury.
Jacobs is going too low for the kind of volume he can get, and Buffalo is more susceptible on the ground than through the air. Should positively correlate with a Josh Allen ceiling game.
James Conner is going undrafted and had one of the highest snap and route involvement rates at the position in Week 1. (He is now questionable with a calf injury).
Rachaad White is going undrafted because he’s been mostly terrible to this point in his career, but gets a soft matchup at home against a weak defense and team overall. He got 17/24 rush attempts and 2/4 targets for Tampa Bay RBs in Week 1.
WR:
Notable WRs missing from this slate: Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson
Notes:
Keenan Allen and Ceedee Lamb both continue to be overdrafted for this style contest. Allen is in a better spot this week at least against a pass funnel defense, with Lamb playing a tough defense in a game projected to be heavily controlled by Dallas’s defense.
Diggs has been easily stacked with Allen all week long, so make sure to differentiate at other spots.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is most frequently paired with DK Metcalf, so ways to get different are to take him with Goff or an undrafted Lockett or 3 together.
Aiyuk is going much higher than Deebo Samuel after last week due to reactionary bias. Deebo has just as much explosive potential in this offense and has historically dominated this Rams defense.
Can the Rams push enough to make two 49ers viable together (i.e. CMC + WR/Kittle)? It worked just last week even in a blowout of PIT.
Mike Williams has explosive potential against a bad pass defense and will be much less owned than Allen.
Gabe Davis has explosive potential against a below-average pass defense and can differentiate your roster from all the Allen-Diggs teams.
Mike Evans and Justin Fields should be positively correlated in this matchup.
Puka Nacua has 1 NFL start so let’s not get ahead of ourselves in his evaluation, but he crushed his first opportunity filling in for Kupp’s shoes. Kupp has dominated this matchup in 5 straight games, and we know offenses generally pass more frequently against SF. A bigger game for him should positively correlate with the SF studs on the other side.
DJ Moore is averaging 88.3 yards/game in his last 8 matchups with Tampa and is likely frustrated coming off a low-usage game in his first start with the Bears. Tampa under Bowles will always push offenses to the air over attacking on the ground.
TE:
Notable TEs missing from this slate: TJ Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, Juwan Johnson, David Njoku, Pat Freiermuth
Top 6 by ADP: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Evan Engram, Kyle Pitts
Notes:
All four of the big dogs are here this week, but all come with injury concerns to start the year.
Kelce has been steadily climbing all week due to positive news, so just know a lot of early rosters were more easily able to achieve stacks with Mahomes, and maybe Ridley as well.
Andrews has typically feasted in this matchup and is going much later than he typically would without a Q tag. Burrow/Lamar + Chase/Higgins + Andrews are still easily draftable combos.
Waller has a hamstring concern, but facing Arizona after Dallas is like going from All-Madden to Rookie mode. New DC and players, but AZ has most recently been an extremely TE-friendly defense. Waller is NYG’s #1 pass catcher.
Cole Kmet is easily stackable with Fields and received 7 targets in Week 1. Kmet made it on top-5 rosters in multiple weeks in 2022.
Underowned Combos:
Justin Fields + DJ Moore/Cole Kmet + Mike Evans/Chris Godwin
Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown + DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett/Kenneth Walker
Josh Allen + Josh Jacobs/Davante Adams + Gabe Davis
Christian McCaffrey + Puka Nacua + (Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk)
Daniel Jones + Darren Waller + (James Conner)
Anthony Richardson + Nico Collins
Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!
