DFS Showdown Strategy

Jets at Browns

By: xandamere & LAREJO

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Strategy Outlook

The way this game is likeliest to play out is for Cleveland to control it. Duh. But there are some tributaries here. We could see the Jets offense look more capable, as we did last week. We could also see the Jets defense force some turnovers, which seems more likely if the Browns allow Flacco to just keep chucking it 40+ times (remember he’s averaging 1.75 interceptions per game and that’s against much weaker defenses). We can also feel confident that the field is going to build for a Browns romp. I expect we’ll see a lot of 4 or 5 Browns rosters with a very heavily owned Cleveland DST, so that gives us some angles we can attack in order to get different.

Potential Scenarios

• Building for a Browns romp is totally reasonable. That’s the likeliest outcome, after all. If you want to go that route, just recognize that it’s going to be a very common construction, and so you’ll need to find some other way to differentiate your rosters.
• As always, underdog heavy rosters offer positive leverage in that they have a higher chance of succeeding than they are generally rostered at. Who wants to build a 4-2 Jets roster? Nobody . . . but it’s a sharp way to go.
• In Jets heavy rosters, you’re basically saying one of two things: one, that the Jets offense finds success here all on its own. Or, two, that the Jets defense holds up Cleveland, either by preventing them from scoring and/or by generating turnovers that lead to some easy New York points. I really want to be overweight on the Jets defense and kicker (short fields + a good opposing defense can easily = a lot of field goals) in my Jets-heavy builds. 

Cash Games

In cash games, my player pool consists of Flacco, Ford, Hall, Njoku, the kickers, and then Tillman if I need to dip down to a value play. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, my favorite overall captains are Ford, Njoku, and Hall in that order, but I also want to be overweight on Wilson, Cooper, and Tillman. 

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Off Script

Larejo >>

The NFL is scripted. Well, they wish they were. What they do want is for the biggest stars to shine on the brightest stage. Over the course of a season, this tends to happen. But in a one-game sample, anything can happen and we can exploit the edge for these off script outcomes.

Welcome to Week 17, where we get the Joe Flacco revenge game to kick things off between the Browns and the Jets. The Jets, as always at this time of year, have nothing to play for but are coming off a win against the Commanders and Sam Howell/Jacoby Brissett. The Browns, of course, are riding Flacco and the Amari Cooper blowup game after defeating a Stroud-less, Case Keenum/Davis Mills combination against the Texans last week. Great, two teams riding wins against two teams that played two combinations of quarterbacks in their last game. Good times!

The natural, comfortable thoughts that arise at first glance in this matchup is that Flacco and Co. should keep on cooking. The Jets will roll with Siemian once again and will try to ride Breece Hall (who frustratingly seized the touchdowns from Garrett Wilson last week) and Wilson to a victory once again on TNF. The defenses on both sides of this matchup are above league average, leading to the paltry 35-point expected total where we want to break down the expected and unexpected outcomes. Well, here’s the basics: the Browns passing offense feels secure, with Flacco going over 300 passing yards and 42 pass attempts in all four of his starts this season, alongside both Hall and Wilson for the Jets. Those are the comfortable plays (Flacco, Cooper, Njoku, Moore, Hall, Wilson) plus the defenses on both sides, with the Browns D likely to garner more ownership than the Jets unit. Of course, the DFS sites know this too so we have to find the pivots that will be lower-owned, and that’s where OWS comes in.

The Jets defense is ranked better against the pass than the run through Week 16, but this has been the result of a trend over the past few weeks as they’ve yielded five rushing TDs combined in the past two games (WAS, MIA). If this trend continues, Ford and Hunt become likelier to be leaned on, especially as home favorites in this spot. The Browns running unit (22nd DVOA) is the first pivot spot in this game, as going heavier on Hunt/Ford instead of Cooper/Njoku seems to make some sense. The two other plays I am seeing are the underrated Elijah Moore revenge game (remember, he requested a trade out of NY midway through last season) and the Jets offense through Siemian, one of Hall/Wilson, and another Jet.

The timing is perfect for Moore here, as he’s part of a unit in this game that should find success (Browns passing) but he hasn’t produced nearly as much as Cooper or Njoku lately. The Jets as a team, as seven-point underdogs could design or be forced into a pass-heavy game plan, and simply betting on Siemian to throw more passes in this game than Flacco is a fun angle too. A standard 4-2 Jets lineup with Moore and Flacco on the Browns plus the Jets side could be high leverage and leans into a Jets upset. Another possibility is building around the Browns running backs, along with Cooper/Njoku and Siemian plus Hall or Wilson in a 4-2 Browns build. Either route you choose, you can run with heavy Moore ownership, Jets-centric builds, or Browns backs for an off script build to take down a tournament.

Off Script Captains: Moore, Ford, Siemian

Off Script Builds: 4-2 Jets with Siemian CPT // 4-2 Browns with Moore or Ford CPT