Xandamere’s Showdown Slant
It only took until Week 2 for us to get an absolutely miserable game for an island Showdown. The Giants visit Washington in a game with a 41 total and Washington favored by a field goal. Vegas, obviously, expects this to be a very low-scoring affair (the first one of the island Showdowns so far), which impacts not just individual player selection but also our overall strategy for how to attack the slate, which we’ll dig into here. It’s also worth noting that we don’t have projections up for this game yet, which means I’ll be making some educated guesses on things that projections will address in more detail.
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WASHINGTON
We’ll start with Washington as they are the more exciting team despite the loss of Ryan Fitzpatrick. The run game is largely about Antonio Gibson, and I expect he’ll have the highest raw points projection on the slate, above the mediocre quarterbacks. In Week 1, Gibson played 65% of the snaps and saw 20 carries and five targets, with the targets being a mild surprise. There was talk of Washington using Gibson more in a pass game role this year, but until we see it, it’s hard to buy, as we see that kind of talk ALL the time about running backs. As a home favorite with near bell-cow status, Gibson is the strongest overall play on the slate. Backup JD McKissic saw 36% of the snaps but just one carry, and more importantly, just one target. Last season, we saw McKissic dominate the pass game role while Gibson was mostly a 2-down back so this is encouraging usage for Gibson, but it’s also worth noting that Washington only attempted 21 passes in the entire game. McKissic should see more than one target per game going forward, but the trust in Gibson in the passing game is exciting. Third-string back Jaret Patterson saw two carries and one target and is an afterthought except potentially in MME pools, and in that case, you’re betting on either Gibson getting hurt or the game getting completely out of hand (i.e. only use Patterson either without Gibson or in Washington onslaught builds).
In the passing game, Washington had a very narrow usage tree, with Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown, and Logan Thomas playing between 90-100% of the snaps; Adam Humphries in a roughly 60% role as the slot receiver; and then a smattering of minor backup usage. Again, we need to remember that Washington only attempted 21 passes, and this usage might well change if they’re throwing more…but with backup Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, they probably don’t want to be throwing much at all. McLaurin is the premium guy here, obviously. He’s the best receiver play in the game and there isn’t much else to say about him. Logan Thomas is priced up at $7,400, which is pretty pricey for a tight end, but for one playing every offensive snap and going up against a defense that has historically been vulnerable to tight ends, he’s a decent play despite the price tag. The most interesting receiving play on Washington, though, is Brown. The rookie wideout played almost every snap and was second on the team in targets (with a whopping four). He didn’t do much with it, but being able to spend $1,400 for a full-time player on the favored team is just a ridiculous value. Expect him to be extremely popular and thus one of the pivotal decision points on the slate; as in, he’s objectively one of the strongest plays, but everyone else is going to realize this as well. I’m actually quite interested in Humphries, who is in a bit of a dead-zone pricing wise. With the value of Brown, I expect Humphries is going to attract relatively modest ownership, but a possession receiver who can rack up some PPR points is exactly the kind of play who can work out perfectly in a low-scoring game. Your MME punt receivers are Ricky Seals-Jones, Cam Sims, DeAndre Carter, and maybe Dax Milne or John Bates if you want to get really frisky/crazy/dumb (pick your adjective). All of these plays are very thin and I listed them in the order in which I prefer them.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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GIANTS
Showdown Slants are for OWS Week, OWS Annual, and Inner Circle members only
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Overview:
- Same coaching staffs and fairly similar rosters as 2020 (adding Saquon & Golladay being biggest changes)
- NYG won this matchup in 2020 by scores of 20-19 & 23-20, with starts in the games of 13-3 and 20-3 before late pushes from WAS
- WAS will play its 3rd different QB in this matchup (Smith, Allen, Heinecke), and 5th of any matchup since last year (Haskins, Fitz)
Taylor Heinecke:
- When thrust into playing time for WAS, Heinecke has gone for 137:1:0 & 122:1:0 in games he didn’t start, and 306:1:1 in his start (playoffs vs TB)
- He has also rushed in those games: 3:22 // 3:17 // 6:46:1
- NYG allowed Teddy Bridgewater to go 264:2 with a 95.7 QBR in Week 1
- The Giants forced the highest pressure rate in the league on Teddy’s dropbacks (53.7%)
- Thursday Home Favorite QBs since 2014 have averaged 18.94 DK pts/g with avg expected pts/g of 18.45 (determined by salary expectations)
WAS WRs:
- The Giants struggled with Jeudy (6:72) before he left injured, Patrick scored, and Hamler dropped a deep TD
- McLaurin vs NYG in 2020: 7:74 (12) // 7:115:1 (8)
- WAS WR notable snaps in Week 1: Terry (100%) // Dyami (93%) // Hump (60%)
- Heinecke WR targets (incl penalty plays): Terry (5) // Dyami (4) // Hump (2) // C Sims (1)
- Heinecke WR targets in TB playoff game: Terry (7) // C Sims (13) // S Sims (4)
- On pass snaps, Terry (20 Wide, 10 Slot) // Dyami (15 Wide, 13 Slot) // Hump (9 Wide, 11 Slot)
- NYG allowed 20.7 pts to Wide & 13.3 to Slot per game in 2020 (per Majesstik’s Workbook)
- Jeudy’s 72 yd shortened game vs NYG came with passing snaps of 5 wide, 19 slot
Logan Thomas:
- Thomas on just Heinecke snaps since 2020: 4:48 (7) // 5:74 (9) // 3:30:1 (3)
- Thomas vs NYG in 2020: 3:42:1 (4) // 3:28 (6)
- DEN TEs vs NYG in W1: Fant (6:62) // Albert O (3:16:1)
- On 30 passing snaps in W1, Thomas had 18 slot, 2 wide, 8 inline, 2 blocking
WAS RBs:
- Week 1 targets (Heinecke targets): Gibson: 5 (2) // McKissic: 1 (0) // Patterson: 1 (1)
- Heinecke targeted Gibson & McKissic three times each in the TB playoff game
- 2020: Four RBs reached 20+ DK pts vs NYG (Monty 21.7, Wilson 21.9, Zeke 23.5, Carson 20), but some RB pairs did it combined: (Wilson+McKinnon 38.6) // (McKissic+Gibson 23.9 & 30.7) // (Sanders+Scott 27.9) // (Drake+Edmonds 25.3) // (Dobbins+Edwards 27.9) // (Zeke+Pollard 21.4)
- Gibson finished with 25 (20 att, 5 tg) of the 30 RB touches in Week 1
- The Giants allowed a late 70-yd Gordon TD, but outside of that held Gordon & Javonte to 76 rush yds on 24 att
- Only three teams allowed more RB rec yds than NYG in 2020
- DEN RBs went just 4:13 through the air on four W1 targets
Overview (NYG):
- The Giants have scored under 20 offensive pts in 11/17 games with Garrett as OC
- After getting manhandled by Von Miller, the Giants offensive line now gets one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, starting with Chase Young
Daniel Jones:
- Jones has 40 TOs in 27 starts
- In 17 Jason Garrett games, Jones or Colt McCoy have scored 1 TD or less in 12 of them
- Jones threw for a combined 324 yds, 1 TD in two games vs WAS in 2020
- Road underdogs on TNF have averaged 16.39 DK pts/g with an avg expected pts of 17.24 (determined by salary expectations)
NYG WRs:
- WAS allowed the 5th fewest WR yds & 3rd fewest WR DK pts in 2020
- LAC WRs vs WAS: Keenan (9:100) // Williams (8:82:1) // Guyton (3:49) // Hill (3:30)
- Keenan Allen played 28 snaps in the slot to 13 wide vs WAS
- Shepard played 28 snaps in the slot to 15 wide in W1 vs DEN
- Snap counts for Giants top WRs: Shep (95%) // Golladay (85%) // Slayton (70%)
- Targets for Giants top WRs: Shep (9) // Golladay (7) // Slayton (6)
- Yards for Giants top WRs: Shep (113) // Golladay (65) // Slayton (64)
Evan Engram:
- Engram received the most targets on NYG in 2020 (though Shep missed 5 g)
- Engram still didn’t practice Monday
- Rudolph finished with 2:8 on 5 targets in W1
- Jared Cook finished with 5:56 on 8 targets vs WAS
Saquon Barkley:
- WAS allowed the 2nd fewest RB DK pts in 2020
- WAS allowed the 4th fewest RB rec yds in 2020
- LAC RBs vs WAS: Ekeler (15:57:1) // Rountree (8:27)
- Saquon’s first game back: 10:26, 1:1 (3)
- Saquon’s only other full game with Garrett as OC came against another tough defense in PIT W1 last year, in which he finished with 15 att 6 yds, 6 rec 60 yds
- NYG RBs vs WAS in 2020: Freeman (18:61) // Gallman (14:68:1); Morris (9:67)
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