Week 1 has six games that pique my interest:
Saints @ Lions (49.5)
Bucs @ Bengals (50.5)
Bears @ Panthers (46.5)
Ravens @ Colts (47.5)
Packers @ Vikings (46.5)
Dolphins @ Raiders (40.5)
The fantasy game of the week, this one isn’t going to sneak up on the field. However, despite being on everyone’s radar, there is a chance that several appealing pieces will be under owned. Let’s start with chalk. Jahmyr Gibbs is the clear RB1. Ownership projections have him around 36%. That’s not ideal, but it’s going to be hard to stay off a player with the ceiling to break the slate. I’m going to use Gibbs. Chris Olave is the other chalk play. He’s projected for 20% ownership and presents obvious value. Playing Gibbs/Olave makes the most sense, but it’s also going to be a highly used pairing. What’s interesting is that after Gibbs and Olave, the rest of the game isn’t projected to get much attention. Jared Goff (10%), Tyler Shough (7%), Travis Etienne (12%), Amon Ra. St. Brown (15%), Jameson Williams (9%), Devaugh Vele (6%), Sam Laporta (5%), and Juwan Johnson (10%) are all projected for below 15% ownership. There is nothing wrong with using Gibbs/Olave in Cash Games or small field tournaments. There is a good chance both will be featured on my main lineup, but if building for large field tournaments, it’s easy to stack the most appealing game on the slate at low ownership by avoiding the two chalk players. My favorite stack for this game is Goff + Williams + Laporta + Vele, which should have relatively light combinational ownership, and doesn’t break the bank.
This game is the highest total of the slate, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to garner as much interest from the field as Saints @ Lions. Everyone is marching to the same drumbeat. Joe Burrow is a bad fantasy pick. He doesn’t have the upside of running QBs, the O-line is bad, the Bengals defense improved, and he can’t stay healthy. I’ve heard these same talking points repeated on podcasts all summer. Are they right? It’s true that Burrow doesn’t run, but he still has the highest pass + rush yards prop on the slate and is playing in the highest total game. It’s also nice that he’s an auto pair with Chase Brown, Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, or Mike Gesecki. Running QBs can post big games without bringing a teammate along for the ride. If Burrow hits, it’s a guarantee that at least one and probably two of his pass catchers are also putting up a big game. The Bengals’ O-line improved (20th ranked by PFF) and should be more average than bad. They have a chance to outperform their ranking after playing much better in the second half of last season, with a couple of young players showing improvement. The Bengals defense did get better, but it was so bad, improving only makes them an average unit. Will an improved defense kill the Bengals game environments? Probably not. Does anyone think the Bengals won’t be a throw first team that scores a lot of points and forces aggression from their opponents? If you don’t believe me, look at their projected game totals. Burrow has been banged up throughout his career, but injuries are fluky, his O-line is better, and we saw what he can do with a full season of health in 2024. Everyone forgot about Dre. Burrow is Dre. My favorite stack is Burrow + Chase + Higgins + Gesicki + Godwin.
Ben Johnson said he wants to break the scoring record. It helps that the Bears defense looks awful on paper which means if they want to make the playoffs, they might have to break the scoring record. The Panthers aren’t a scary matchup, and their style of play (make teams march the field) favors Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. It looks like Kyle Monangai is going to play which limits Swift’s upside but will also significantly lower his ownership. Swift is still useable. Rome Odunze is expected to play, and if he does, he’s going to draw negligible ownership. He’s a great leverage play. The Panthers offense isn’t great, but the Bears defense is worse and injured. Tetairoa McMillian has been lining up in the slot during camp, and if that trend holds, he should have a safe floor along with an explosive ceiling. This game has a chance to take off. It’s a stack it or leave it alone spot for me. My favorite stack is Caleb + Burden + Loveland + T-Mac.
If Lamar Jackson is the player we saw his entire career before last season, this game could break the slate. The Colts’ defense isn’t terrible, but it’s not scary, and Lamar is always a threat to rush for 100 yards plus a touchdown. The hardest part about playing Jackson is figuring out a stacking partner. Zay Flowers is the most obvious, but historically Zay hasn’t been a red zone target and tournament winning upside comes from touchdowns. Mark Andrews is usually who I pair with Jackson, but he looked washed last season. I’m willing to give Andrews a pass for Week 1 at one of his cheapest price points in years. The Colts’ passing game is murky, and if the Ravens get pushed into aggression, it’s going to be because Johnathan Taylor is breaking big plays. I don’t like this game for isolation plays, but if it explodes, it’s going to produce scores you need. My favorite stack is Lamar + Andrews + Taylor.
This is the high total game that is most likely to go overlooked, outside of everyone using Marshawn Lloyd as a salary saver. Kyler Murray has sky high upside, but he’s not being talked about as a great tournament play. He’s expected to draw under 10% ownership. Murray is easy to pair with Justin Jefferson. If we forgive Jefferson for last season, he has similar slate breaking upside to Jamar Chase, but he’s $500 cheaper and will have half the ownership. You can make a case for the ancillary pieces of the Vikings offense, but I think they’re going to make a point to get Jefferson involved after he disappeared last year. Everyone is going to use Lloyd as a free square, and that’s ok, but chalky RB fill-ins have cost me more money than any other type of play in DFS. That’s not to say Lloyd is a bad play, but he has a lot more risk than his ownership will indicate. The Packers WRs are going to be virtually unowned, despite their circumstances dramatically improving from last season. My favorite is Matthew Golden. He is cheap, should be on the field every play, runs explosive routes, and is projected for under 5% ownership. Golden is my top play, but Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are also strong options. My favorite stack is Murray + Jefferson + Golden (or one of the other two Packers WRs).
The low total special. This game won’t draw much ownership because both teams are projected to stink, but the darndest things can happen when two bad teams play. Both offenses are projected to be poor, but so are both defenses! The Dolphins might have the worst defense on paper I’ve ever seen. The Raiders RB situation is cloudy because of injury, but Brock Bowers should eat, and there is a good chance Tre Tucker ends up being a strong point per dollar play. He’s the cheapest WR1 on the slate. Speaking of cheap, Caleb Douglas, who is projected to start for the Dolphins, is the stone-cold minimum on DK. Malik Willis who could run for 100 yards, and a TD is basically free. This game could be a dud, but there is a better than ownership will predict chance that this game produces a bunch of good scores at cheap price points. My favorite stack is Willis + Douglas + Bowers.
Everything is open for Week 1. Inner Circle keeps the full OWS process working through the Super Bowl and lets you keep the $229 rate in 2027.
