This guide explains the statistics used in the weekly matchup tables and visualizations. The data is sourced from NFLverse play-by-play tracking and adjusted to show the net impact of an offense facing its upcoming opponent’s defense. The goal is to make complex football analytics easier to follow for casual readers while still offering depth for those who want to dig in.
Each row in the weekly tables represents a team’s offensive outlook for their matchup. Color scales highlight whether a team’s numbers are strong (green), weak (red), or near league average (yellow).
All Net stats combine a team’s offensive performance with their opponent’s defensive numbers, giving a matchup-specific outlook.
The radar provides a visual profile for each matchup, with stats adjusted on a Net basis (offense vs. opposing defense). Each axis represents a key metric plotted against league medians for quick comparison. The left side of each radar chart focuses on the running game, while the right side highlights the passing game.
Implied Points – The expected points scored based on Vegas betting markets.
DSR (Drive Success Rate) – The percent of offensive series that end with either a first down or touchdown (series ending with a QB kneel are not counted). Indicates consistency in moving the chains.
PROE (Pass Rate over Expectation) – How often a team passes compared to expectation based on down, distance, time, and score.
– Positive = more pass-heavy than expected.
– Negative = more run-heavy than expected.
CPOE (Completion Percentage over Expectation) – Completion percentage relative to the expected probability of a completed pass based on comparable game situations.
– Positive = higher completion percentage than expected.
– Negative = lower completion percentage than expected.
EPA/Pass (Expected Points Added per Pass) – Expected points added per passing play based on scoring event probabilities. Higher values mean the pass game creates scoring value.
EPA/Run (Expected Points Added per Run) – Expected points added per rushing play based on scoring event probabilities. Higher values mean the run game creates scoring value.
Red Zone Efficiency – Percentage of drives that end in a touchdown once inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
Explosive Passes – Number of passing plays per game with more than 15 yards gained.
Explosive Runs – Number of rushing plays per game with more than 10 yards gained.
Positive Run – Percentage of rushing plays with positive yardage.
Pass Plays Available – Number of passing play attempts per game.
Run Plays Available – Number of rushing play attempts per game
Spot Advantages: Look for green values in EPA or Explosive Plays to identify where an offense may thrive. Matchups where both teams have higher DSR have the potential to be high-scoring, offensive battles.
Check Balance: Teams with high PROE and good EPA/Pass are more pass-driven, while lower PROE with good EPA/Run suggests a strong run game. A symmetrically shaped radar chart indicates a more balanced offense.
Matchup Context: Remember that all Net stats are adjusted for opponent strength. This isn’t just season averages; it’s tailored to this week’s game.
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