Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the tenth slate.
Week 10 has four games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
There is a blowout risk here, but other than that, this is an excellent game environment. Josh Allen is at his cheapest price of the season, after his second-best fantasy game of the year, facing the Dolphins defense. Did DK try and make it easier? The Bills are going to score, and the only risk of this game not blowing up is if the Dolphins can’t keep up. There is a chance they don’t fight back, but they’re at home, and the Bills defense is banged up. They looked slow last week, and that’s not a great way to contain De’Von Achane. It’s easy to pair Allen with his pass catchers since all of them are cheap, and the Dolphins concentrated offense makes for a few obvious bring-backs. It’s not hard to stack this game, and it could break the slate. I’m not going to overthink using Allen in my main lineup. Allen + Shakir + Achane is currently my favorite way to build this game.
I’m higher on this game than the field. The entire Ravens offense is underpriced for the return of Lamar Jackson. The Vikings defense hasn’t looked as strong this season (15th in total DVOA). Jackson is matchup-proof anyway, and it doesn’t hurt that this game will be played inside. J.J. McCarthy looked like he could play last week, and if the Vikings can keep it close, there is a good chance this game takes off. It’s easily stackable from both sides, and both offenses are concentrated enough that it doesn’t take much guesswork to pick the strongest plays. I think this game could surprise with relatively moderate ownership. McCarthy + Jefferson + Addison + Andrews is how I’m likely to attack this game.
Both teams are regularly creating game environments to target, so when they play one another, we want to pay attention. The Giants are all cheap relatively to their upside, but it’s the Bears who are more likely to put up slate breaking numbers. Rome Odunze was a sacrificial lamb last week, and his father complained about his usage. Rome said all the right things, and the Bears talked about the work he put in as a blocker. I see this as a smash spot for Odunze where the coaching staff feeds him 10-plus targets. His projected ownership is going to be under 5% and he’ll probably be one of my flag plants this week. It doesn’t hurt that DK reduced his price $600 after his dud. I’m going to stack this game from both sides. Caleb + Odunze + Loveland + Slayton is how I’m looking to play this game.
These offenses are both concentrated enough that their games are weekly targets. This game is the best combination of a high total and close spread on the slate. Those two factors should have our radars up for DFS, and this game offers the two premier plays on the slate in Christian McCaffrey and Puka Nacua. It’s not impossible to play them together, which would write the narrative that this game explodes. It’s difficult to build lineups that look right without at least one of them, and this game is stackable from either side. I’m not sure which direction I’ll go yet, but I’m going to have one of my tighter builds dedicated to this game. Stafford + Puca + Kyren + CMC is my favorite way to go about this game, but you must get very creative on the rest of your roster to afford that combination.
