JM’s Player Grid 14.25

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Trevor Lawrence
James Cook
RJ Harvey
Luther Burden
Alec Pierce
Michael Pittman
Brenton Strange
Colston Loveland
Browns

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Blue Chips

None

But after a Week 13 in which we had no Light Blue plays either, that section is full of plays this week(!).

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Kings of the South”

Trevor Lawrence + Jakobi Meyers + Brenton Strange

Story:

“Liam Coen has a plan”

Why It Works:

I’m thinking about this game from the Jags’ perspective. They are 8-4 with wins over San Francisco, Kansas City, and (a beatdown against) the Chargers. They are in first place in the division over a Texans team that the national media is fawning over and a Colts team that people have been treating as a true contender out of the AFC all year. Again: we’re 13 weeks into the season, and it’s not the Texans or Colts who are in first place in this division. It’s the Jags. And here they are hosting the Colts, as underdogs.

We know that Liam Coen has to work around the inconsistencies of Lawrence, but he’s been doing a great job of this lately. Since the Jags’ bye, they have scored 30 vs the Raiders, 29 vs the Texans(!), 35 vs the Chargers(!), 27 vs the Cardinals, and 25 vs Tennessee (in a game where they took their foot off the gas early). No team has topped 30 vs the Colts this year…but no other team had topped 20 vs the Texans, and only the Dolphins (27) and Colts (38) had topped 21 vs the Chargers.

Doesn’t this just feel like the type of game where the Jags will find a way to score points? (And if they do, doesn’t this feel like the type of game where the Colts will find a way to keep the pressure on?)

I won’t try to pretend that this is comfortable; but it’s not a particularly comfortable/confident week at the quarterback position, which has me feeling comfortable leaning into a pretty obvious way in which this game could play out. I’m betting on Liam Coen; and if he has a plan here, I expect these to be the guys who benefit the most.

How It Works:

This block should be played with a bring-back (see “Colts Pass Catchers” Build-Around, above), and can be played with two. You can also, of course, play just one of these pass catchers with Lawrence (a lot of his ceiling throughout his career has come from rushing production), and if you want to swap Parker Washington or even Brian Thomas Jr. into this block, you can.

Variations of this block will probably be moderately popular this week, so don’t expect this to set you apart if it hits. But if it does hit, you’ll be in great shape, and the rest of your roster can do the remaining bit of lifting from there.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Taylor Squared”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

100% Cook

As I’ve mentioned all season: I’ve been heavy SE/3-Max this year, and have been using the Bink Machine to shop through ideas.

THIS WEEK HAS BEEN ESPECIALLY VALUABLE IN THIS REGARD(!).

First, I crossed out everyone who wasn’t a Light Blue or Tier 1 option, with the exception of:

• 5% to 10% opened up for each “Cheap with Upside” wide receiver option
• 5% to 8% opened up on each of my non-Light-Blue running backs

I then ran hundreds of rosters to see A) what all the various permutations of “two to three Light Blue plays on one roster” might look like, and to see B) if leaning into some of the cheaper guys I hadn’t been hand-building around might create a light-bulb roster I would not have gotten to on my own. (I have at least one roster I expect to put into play from this latter pile.)

On a week like this, where I believe I have a good feel for the slate, but the roster mechanics are tight, I find this part of my process to be especially valuable.

I had several rules I locked in for these builds (note: if I were running a set of 150 rosters for MME, these rules might be a bit different; but for creating rosters I wanted to shop through for SE/3-Max ideas, these made sense), including:

• 100% of Mason Taylor has Tyrod Taylor
• 100% of Jakobi Meyers has Trevor Lawrence
• 80% of Brenton Strange has Trevor Lawrence
• 70% of Dalton Kincaid has James Cook
• 90% of Chase Brown has Samaje Perine (and vice versa)

But the rule I wanted to highlight here, as it will definitely apply to my hand-builds this week ::

100% JAMES COOK.

He’s not 100% certain to hit, of course.

But I expect to have him on all my SE/3-Max rosters this week.

Lock button highlighted on James Cook.

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Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Josh Allen || Trevor Lawrence || Tyrod Taylor

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM