Fantasy Football Week 17 Start/Sit – QB/RB

Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful.

Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 17’s action.

But first…

Last Week: 13-7 (.650)

– QB: 4-6 (40%)

– RB: 9-1 (90%)

2024 NFL Season: 197-123 (.620)

– QB: 98-62 (61%)

– RB: 99-61 (62%)

Quarterbacks

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

My Guys This Week

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Opponent: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers’ defense has struggled against the pass all season, allowing multiple passing touchdowns in several games. Their secondary is exploitable, especially against accurate quarterbacks. And While Young has had an up-and-down rookie season, he’s shown flashes here lately (including 28+ against these very Buccaneers). Also, if Tampa takes an early lead, Young will be put in a pass-heavy game script, boosting his volume and yardage potential as well. Carolina’s offensive line has had issues protecting Young, however, and outside of Thielen, Young doesn’t have many reliable targets – which could cap his ceiling. Young has upside in favorable game conditions, and I like/love his chances this week.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opponent: v. Carolina Panthers

Mayfield has taken advantage of good matchups all season, and Carolina’s defense has been inconsistent at best, particularly against the pass. They have struggled to generate pressure and contain QBs in recent weeks, making it an exploitable matchup for Baker. Mayfield has shown solid efficiency lately, especially in games where he’s had clean pockets. This matchup could turn into a high-scoring affair, as Carolina has shown offensive sparks the past month or so (RE: my other QB start reco). Mayfield is a great play this week, high ceiling with a solid floor and potential for a big game against Carolina.

Honorable mention: Brock Purdy (SF), Justin Herbert (LAC), Caleb Williams (CHI)

My Fades This Week

Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cleveland Browns

Opponent: v. Miami Dolphins

Miami’s defense has been pretty damn good against opposing QBs on the season (ranked first against the position), and I expect them to make it difficult for DTR to find consistent success through the air. As a rookie quarterback, DTR is still adjusting to the speed and complexity of NFL defenses, and he has struggled with turnovers and consistency in limited appearances this season (which may be amplified against a solid Miami defense). Miami’s offense can force opposing teams into catch-up mode, which could lead to DTR being put in unfavorable passing situations as well, increasing the likelihood of mistakes. Unless you’re desperate at quarterback or in a deep league, it’s better to explore safer, more proven options this week.

Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys

Opponent: @ Philadelphia Eagles

Cooper Rush faces an uphill battle this week against one of the NFL’s best defenses. The Eagles boast an elite pass rush and a strong secondary, which has been exceptional at limiting opposing quarterbacks all season (all credit due to Jadyn Daniels scorching them for nearly 50 points). Rush has done a commendable job managing games for Dallas, and he’s even dropped 20+ in four of his last six games. An interesting note, however – Philadelphia’s defense is particularly tough on pocket passers, making this a challenging matchup for Coop. If you’re a regular reader, you know I’ve shown Cooper much love. But I’m not sure I trust him in the ship this week in a bad-blood game. If you’re streaming quarterbacks, look elsewhere this week, as Rush’s ceiling and floor are both too low in this unfavorable divisional showdown.

Honorable mention: Geno Smith (SEA), Russell Wilson (PIT), Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)

Running Backs

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

My Guys This Week

Jonathon Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Opponent: @ New York Giants

Jonathon Taylor saved my fantasy life last week, and we’re all going to lean on him again this week in a must-start matchup against the New York Giants. Big Blue’s defense has struggled against the run this season, allowing one of the highest yards-per-carry averages in the league. On the other hand, Taylor has been heating up, showing the elite form that made him a fantasy superstar. With Indianapolis likely leaning on their ground game to control the pace, Taylor should see plenty of volume, especially near the goal line. His combination of power and burst makes him a prime candidate for a multi-touchdown performance against a soft front seven. Start Taylor with confidence as an RB1 this week—he’s set to feast.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opponent: v. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers’ defense has been one of the most generous units to opposing RBs this season, ranking near the bottom of the league in rushing yards allowed. Irving’s explosiveness makes him a strong candidate for a nice week here. BONUS – Irving’s ability to catch passes out of the backfield gives him additional value as well. The Panthers’ linebackers have struggled to contain running backs in the passing game, which could lead to additional opportunities for him. If the Bucs establish an early lead, Irving could see increased volume as they look to control the clock, maximizing his touches. Unless there’s a significantly better matchup elsewhere on your roster, Irving looks like a solid start this week.

Honorable mention: Saquon Barkley (PHI), Bijan Robinson (ATL), Chuba Hubbard (CAR)

My Fades This Week

Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys

Opponent: @ Philadelphia Eagles

Man, what a ride. And in all honesty, many of us owe Rico a thank you for carrying us into our fantasy playoffs. The touchdowns weren’t there, but man, the rushing yards sure were. Dowdle was a stud from Weeks 12-15 but ran into a brick wall Sunday night against the suddenly stout Tampa Bay rush defense. This week, Dowdle gets the Eagles, and I don’t like this matchup for many of the same reasons. Only five rushing touchdowns allowed all season by Philly, and zero 100-yard rushers since Week 4, leading to this unit producing 5.4 points better than league average PVO. And with the Ship on the line for most of us, I just don’t think we can rely on Rico this week.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Opponent: v. Kansas City

If you’re considering starting Najee Harris this week, you might want to temper expectations and explore other options. The Chiefs’ run defense has been solid this season, ranking among the best units in the league in limiting running back production. They’ve excelled at controlling the line of scrimmage and forcing teams to pass. If the Steelers fall behind early, Harris may see limited opportunities to establish the run and could lose snaps to Jaylen Warren in passing situations. Warren’s role in the offense has grown, with the Steelers utilizing him more recently in key situations. This obviously cuts into Harris’s workload and limits his fantasy upside, especially in PPR formats. Unless you’re thin at running back or in a desperate spot, Harris is better left on the bench this week.

Honorable mention: Isiah Pacheco (KC), Tank Bigsby (JAX), D’Andre Swift (CHI)