Fantasy Football Week 16 Start/Sit: WR/TE

Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful.

Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 16’s action, including two Saturday games.

But first…

Last Week: 15-5 (.700)

– WR: 9-1 (90%)

– TE: 6-4 (60%)

2024 NFL Season: 180-120 (.600)

– WR: 93-57 (62%)

– TE: 87-63 (58%)

Wide Receivers

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

My Guys This Week

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

Opponent: v. Minnesota Vikings

Over/Under – 42.9

Opponent Rank v. WR: 32 (33.40)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 31 (44.63)

JSN has taken over as WR1 for the Seahawks, plain and simple. Since Week 6, JSN leads the Seattel WR room in snap share, targets, route participation, and, most importantly for us – fantasy production. There really is no debate, apologies to Metcalf owners (myself included). This week, Smith-Njigba gets one of (if not the) most generous defenses to opposing wideouts, giving up 30 points or more to the position in 11/14 weeks (even the Bears dropped 42.6 on them). The game has huge playoff implications for both, so expect some fireworks here (I actually think the O/U is low for this one, but I’m no Ace Rothstein). As long as Geno stays upright and gets the ball out (Vikings have a positive pass-rush advantage score, per PFF) JSN will be a sturdy play with space for a top-15 performance.

Malik Nabers, New York Giants

Opponent: @ Atlanta Falcons

Over/Under – 41.5

Opponent Rank v. WR: 29 (31.40)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 27 (39.17)

ESPN ran an interesting article on CB/WR shadows, and I absolutely agree with their assessment of the forthcoming Nabers/A.J. Terrell matchup this weekend. The article notes the success other receivers have had v. Terrell, and the numbers don’t lie – an average of 17.0 points per game to the shadowed wideout (including Justin Jefferson going 7-132-2 against him). PFF agrees with ESPN and I, giving Nabers an 87.8 grade against the matchup this week. And on the whole, Atlanta has been horrible against the position all season, and I truly expect more of the same here. As of right now, it looks like Drew Locke will be under center Sunday, though I’m not sure it matters. Nabers is second in the NFL in targets (CeeDee Lamb), and it really hasn’t factored as to who the QB is (he’s averaging 12 targets per game in his last four). He won’t contend for WR1, but his 15-17 points will for sure play for us.

Honorable mention: Jakobi Meyers (LV), Mike Evans (TB), CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

My Fades This Week

Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers

Opponent: @ Miami Dolphins

Over/Under – 44.5

Opponent Rank v. WR: 2 (23.80)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 17 (34.03)

Deebo was a sit reco in Week 14, and I’m bringing him back this week. He’s just been soooooo disappointing for us (and the 49ers), considering when Aiyuk went down, he had a real opportunity to step up. Samuel Sr. hasn’t finished above WR54 since Week 10, and friends, that was a measly WR25. I could regurgitate all the reasons I listed in Week 14, but I won’t. He’s been brutal for weeks now, his target share has dropped to 17.8%, he’s trailed Jauan Jennings in snap share pretty much all year, and the finishes just aren’t there for us. If you’re contending for the ship, do it without Deebo.

DJ Moore, Chicago Bears

Opponent: v. Detroit Lions

Over/Under – 48.5

Opponent Rank v. WR: 25 (29.10)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 14 (32.38)

Regular readers of this column know I have a huge problem with inconsistent players, regardless of the fault of inconsistency. Such is the case with DJ Moore, who has been elite at times (three top 10’s), but mostly leaves us wanting/needing more. Outside those top 10 finishes, he’s only finished inside the top 30 once all season. And I know you know, but this Bears offense is brutal. BRUTAL. And it’s just too much of a gamble in the fantasy playoffs on any of their pass catchers – Rome Odunze (whom I love), Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet (see below), and others. They tried to work him in Monday night, but it’s abundantly evident they are only using him on screens, and short-yardage plays (including runs). The matchup screams WR production, but this isn’t a group we can count on if we want to still be playing next week.

Honorable mention: Ladd McConkey (LAC), Zay Flowers (BAL), Jaylen Waddle (MIA)

Tight Ends

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation – green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

My Guys This Week

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Opponent: @ Baltimore Ravens

Over/Under – 45.0

Opponent Rank v. TE: 22 (10.20)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 7 (9.80)

It’s not a great matchup for Pat, per se, as the Ravens have been much better against the position in the last month. Freiermuth has been very productive with Pickens out, and it looks like that might be the case this weekend. Russell Wilson clearly has a connection with Freiermuth, who has at least 59 yards and/or a touchdown in four straight. And to be clear, he struggled against these Ravens back in Week 11, so there is space for a floor game in this one. In a game where I expect DangeRuss to be throwing, it’s entirely plausible that 6-8 of them targets go Freiermuth’s day, along with another touchdown. That’s my no-so-bold prediction. Top 12 is where I have Pat this week.

Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

Opponent: @ Indianapolis Colts

Over/Under – 42.5

Opponent Rank v. TE: 30 (12.80)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 31 (19.77)

Chig looked like a bonafide tight end last week against the Bengals – 10 targets, 8 receptions, and 59 yards – good enough for TE7 on the week. And it was only three short weeks ago that Chig was also TE7 for us (albeit on a 70-yard touchdown). And I’m going against my inconsistency theory here and playing a hunch. It’s looking like Rudolph will be the starter on Sunday, which is kind of a good thing for Okonkwo, and this matchup couldn’t be any better for them. The Colts have been very generous to the position all season, including 20+ points per game and three touchdowns allowed in the last two matchups. Same as with Pat above, not saying this will be TE1 territory, but the top 12 seems very realistic.

Honorable mention: Trey McBride (ARI), Brock Bowers (LV), Hunter Henry (NE)

My Fades This Week

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Opponent: v. Detroit

Over/Under – 48.5

Opponent Rank v. TE: 1 (6.30)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 5 (8.85)

The NFL is all about situations and opportunities, it really is. Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, etc., are all in fantastic situations for a TE based on system and personnel. Others find themselves with opportunities due to injuries – Cade Otton, Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, etc., all excelled when given the opportunity. I often wonder, as a Bears fan, why we don’t properly utilize Kmet. He’s a gifted athlete and has flashed when given targets. Put Kmet on the Chiefs in place of Kelce with a QB who believes in him and feeds him. Is it too far off to think Kmet could be top five in that scenario? Sigh. And I digress. Kmet isn’t in the best system for him, and the results have followed. He’s only been targeted – targeted – four times in the past three games and only once in the previous two. As if it mattered past that, the Lions have been phenomenal against the position all year. Kmet is an obvious no this week, and next, and the week after that.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Opponent: v. New York Giants

Over/Under – 41.5

Opponent Rank v. TE: 3 (7.30)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 16 (13.25)

Pitts has been featured here multiple times, and rightfully so. He hasn’t had a week that’s mattered for us since Week 8 (TE2), and finished routinely outside the top 24 during that span. He was great in Weeks 5-8, but since then, it’s been Bust City. And he’s an enigma, no doubt. But maybe he’s like Kmet above – in the wrong situation. I have to think he, too could benefit from a team or system switch. But that isn’t happening before Week 16, as much as we would like it to. Wait. WAIT A MINUTE! COUSINS ISN’T STARTING? REPLACED BY A ROOKIE? IS THERE HOPE? Maybe. I’m not sure whether to upgrade or downgrade the Atlanta pass catchers with Penix under center. On one hand Cousins has been so brutal they’re benching him regardless of payroll, so it has to be an upgrade, right? On the other, an untested (albeit talented) rookie is getting a look in a pivotal game for the team who could be so overwhelmed he busts in his first action. Flip a coin on that one. Pitts could be a bit of a boom but could also be a sensational bust… in the fantasy playoffs. Nope. Nuh-uh. Not for me.

Honorable mention: Ja’Tavian Sanders (CAR), Noah Fant (SEA), Travis Kelce (KC)