XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football brings us an exciting game between two teams that need to win. As it stands right now, Washington is extremely likely to make the playoffs, even if they lose, but it’s not guaranteed. The Falcons are currently calculated at a 36% chance to make the playoffs if they lose and an 86% chance if they win (keep in mind I’m writing this on Friday before the Sat/Sun games). It’s safe to say both teams will be motivated in this one. The Commanders are favored by 4 in a 47.5 total game and of course, the big news is Atlanta handing the QB reins over to rookie Michael Penix and benching their expensive bust Kirk Cousins. The Falcons beat the Giants 34-7 in Penix’s debut and he looked alright but not great, completing two thirds of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt (not bad), though he threw a pick and didn’t manage a touchdown pass. On the road against stiffer competition than New York’s paper-thin defense, a big part of this game is going to be about whether Penix can improve from his debut or if the tougher matchup gives him trouble.
WASHINGTON
On the Commanders side, Brian Robinson leads the backfield but has struggled to put up significant fantasy scores even on this strong offense. The passing game role he seemed to be building early on the season has collapsed (11 targets in the first four games, but then just 10 more in the next seven games), leaving him as a 2-down back with restricted workloads and a quarterback who is a threat to vulture him. Robinson has only reached the 20-carry mark twice this season and has been held to 12 or fewer carries in 5 of his 12 games, including three wins. As a home favorite, he’s a stronger play than his game logs would indicate but $9k is a very full price. I’ll have some but he’s not a core play for me. With Austin Ekeler still on IR, the RB2 role has been filled primarily by Jeremy McNichols with Chris Rodriguez mixing in here and there. At $2,800, McNichols is a reasonable play but not an especially strong one (you’d need a TD or a Robinson injury), while Rodriguez is a pure punt option.
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In the passing game, McLaurin has been on an absolute tear with 6 touchdowns in his last four games. Just outside of the top 10 wide receivers in PPR fantasy points per game, McLaurin seems to be living up to his potential with Jayden Daniels at quarterback, but it’s worth noting he’s doing so on efficiency and big plays. He’s only hanging out at 6.5 targets/game for a 22.4% target share (and keep in mind this is on an offense with below-average passing volume). He’s getting by because he’s ranked 5th in the NFL in total air yards – he’s getting a lot of deep targets. The Falcons defense is built around keeping things in front of them and preventing big plays (they’re allowing just 9.5 yards per completion, 2nd lowest in the NFL) so this isn’t the best matchup for his skillset. He’s talented enough to hit in any matchup, but I’m ranking him down just a bit here. With Noah Brown hurt, the Commanders are pretty thin behind McLaurin. Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown have been playing the most snaps and then Jamison Crowder (who is apparently still in the league) has seen his role climb in the last couple of weeks. But…Brown is out this week. Luke McCaffrey has had a disappointing rookie season and has largely disappeared from the offense. He could see a bit more involvement just because the Commanders are so thin at WR, but he’s a scary play given how little he’s done in the NFL this year. Zaccheaus smashed last week with a 5/70/2 line on 8 targets – just be aware it was a 4/21/1 line and then he had a 49 yard broken play. He’s generally a guy with a very limited route tree, and more of a possession receiver, so it’s tough for him to find much yardage upside (this was only his 2nd game of the season over 50 yards). At $6,400, he’s a reasonable play with Brown out but I’m just a little nervous that he’s going to project well and thus become really chalky. At chalk ownership (say, 35% or more), I’m comfortable being underweight here and just crossing my fingers. Crowder is interesting, though. His snaps have already gone from 27% to 46% in the last two weeks, and Brown being out could force him into a nearly full-time role. He scored 2 red zone touchdowns last week so he’s earned trust for these important targets. His yardage upside is modest, but overall I see him as having a pretty similar profile to Zaccheaus, except for half the price.
Speaking of guys who have similar profiles, Zach Ertz…is also similar. Low aDOT, low yardage role but decent touchdown equity and on the field a lot. In a raw points projection, he should probably be a bit ahead of Zaccheaus and Crowder because he’s likely on the field more, but again, all of these guys are fairly similar, so price and ownership should dictate our approach. Finally, John Bates fills a modest TE2 role with a whopping 11 targets on the year.
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