XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
The more exciting game of the Christmas duo, this one has the Ravens at the Texans for a 47.5 total game with Baltimore favored by 3. The big news is of course the injury to Tank Dell, who dislocated his kneecap and was hospitalized. That leaves Houston awfully thin at wide receiver once more, which has been a trend this season, going into a critical game against one of the best teams in the league. Yikes.
HOUSTON
On the Texans side, their run game runs into an absolute brick wall as the Ravens defense has been the best in the NFL against opposing run games, both on an efficiency basis (just 3.6 yards per carry) as well as a volume basis (just 83 rushing yards per game allowed). Mixon has had some huge games this year – a whopping six games of 25+ DK points (ok, one was 24.9, sue me), but it’s noteworthy that all of those games have come against teams who are below-average at stopping the run. With Dell hurt and the receiving corps in shambles, I expect the Texans will try to get Mixon going as much as they can. If he’s able to find room they’ll be happy to ride him but the odds of him finding a lot of room are fairly low. I do expect his passing game role to spike here, though. Mixon is a capable receiver who is already averaging 4 targets per game on the season and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get at least 5 here. There’s an interesting ownership angle to consider here if you want to play Mixon, which is that with a 2-game Christmas slate as well, he’s going to project for lower ownership on one or the other slate. I’m not sure which yet, but once our ownership is up, I’d consider leaning more heavily into Mixon on whichever slate has less ownership (if you want to invest here at all, that is). RB2 Dare Ogunbowale has one of the smallest backup roles in the league – he racked up some opportunities in the three games Mixon missed early in the year but has just 20 total opportunities in the 12 games in which Mixon has been healthy. RB3 Dameon Pierce is more of a direct backup to Mixon than Ogunbowale, and should Mixon get hurt, it’s Pierce who I think steps into the bigger role on the ground (though an injury would open things up more for Ogunbowale in the passing game, which, especially if the Texans are losing, could well be more valuable).
In the passing game, we should see Nico Collins get all the work he can handle while some combination of Xavier Hutchinson, Robert Woods, John Metchie, and perhaps Jared Wayne play the rest of the wide receiver snaps. Nico is obviously going to project as an obvious smash play as one of the NFL’s best receivers going up against a defense facing the NFL’s 2nd-highest opposing passing play percentage at 63.6%. The Ravens are giving up a ton of passing volume despite being roughly average against opposing passing on a per-play basis (6.8 yards per pass attempt allowed, league average is 6.6). Nico is always a great play and is likely to be the highest owned skill position player on the slate (I bet Lamar is higher, Nico 2nd overall). It’s worth noting that the Baltimore pass defense has tightened up lately, though after allowing an insane 295 passing yards/game in their first 10 games they’ve held their last five opponents to just 175 yards/game. Now, they’ve played the Eagles, Chargers, Giants, and Steelers (twice) in that span – not exactly a murderer’s row of passing offenses – but they’ve also legitimately looked better. So, while I view this as a favorable matchup, I think it isn’t quite as soft as it looked in the season’s first half. Nico’s still a great play but at expected very high ownership there is at least a case to be made for avoiding him beyond “well, football’s weird.” I’ll be playing him though because, well…Nico forever. For the rest of the guys, Metchie and Woods stand out as the top options to me. Since earning a real role in Week 8, Metchie has 24 targets in seven games. Not elite, obviously, but he’s at least earning a role. Woods is a veteran who can run nice routes but has very little upside at this point in his career with only 1 catch over 20 yards on the season. At $4,800 he’s a bit overpriced for what is basically a floor play – he’s priced near the kickers but I think has only a modest chance of outscoring them. Hutchinson has struggled to earn targets all year even when given the opportunity and is someone I would view only as a punt option.
At tight end, we should expect Dalton Schultz to be heavily involved and I’d bet on him to be 2nd on the team in targets behind Nico. Schultz has had a disappointing season but he does have 2 touchdowns in his last three games. At $5,200 he’s priced near the kickers but I believe he’s a favorite to beat them. He’s underpriced without Tank Dell and is someone I view as a core piece in this Showdown. TE2 Cade Stover is expected to return after having his appendix taken out and should come back to a modest volume role that has resulted in ~1.5 targets per game.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.