Week 14 Monday

Patriots at Steelers

By: xandamere & Larejo

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Strategy Outlook by Xandamere

Overall, these are two bad offenses slugging it out in what is likely to be a slow, low-scoring game. Low total games boost the viability of defenses and kickers, as well as guys who can either get there via volume (the running backs) or via a big play or a touchdown (Pickens, Thornton, Henry, guys like that). Low-scoring games are generally not good for quarterbacks. So, let’s look at how we can build.

Potential Scenarios

• Onslaughts in either direction are viable. I think we’ll see a lot of Steelers onslaughts, but keep in mind that Pittsburgh has five games this season scoring 10 or fewer points, so it could certainly go the other way, and Patriots onslaughts will likely be much lower owned.
• Given the extreme low total of this game, I’m changing my “max 2 kicker and DST” rule to “max 3” for this one. 
• Salary is an interesting dynamic on this slate. We have a lot of value plays that are very, very thin options, and there is not a single player priced above $10k. Projections always push people to spend the majority of their salary. On a slate with really loose pricing like this and with dubious sub-kicker value options, finding ways to build rosters that leave $1k+ on the table while also not playing anyone priced below the kickers is an interesting way to think about getting different.

Cash Games

In cash games . . . I won’t be playing cash games. I don’t see the edge. But I’d probably focus on the running backs and kickers, maybe Pickens or Diontae. The QBs are fine as well. Yeesh. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, I want to have most of my captain ownership on the 3 running backs, Pickens, and Parker.

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OFF SCRIPT

LAREJO >>

The NFL is scripted. Well, they wish they were. What they do want is for the biggest stars to shine on the brightest stage. Over the course of a season, this tends to happen. But in a one-game sample, anything can happen and we can exploit the edge for these off script outcomes.

Similar to last Monday’s thriller between the Bears and Vikings, a game expected to be this low-scoring is nearly impossible to have a feel for. We could see a variety of different outcomes, anchored on any of the four primary ones: a blowout or close win by the favorite (PIT), or a blowout or close win by the underdog (NE). There you have it, an exciting angle to this Showdown! All outcomes are on the table, now we’re thinking positively.

Before mentioning any players, let’s examine these paths briefly and see how you feel when reading each of these game scripts:

• Trubisky is decent, with maybe one pass touchdown through the air, we get another from Najee or Warreen on the ground, and NE struggles to get much going offensively. Ballpark outcome: Steelers 14-6.
• The Steelers defense shows out, Trubisky looks better than Pickett, Pickens or Diontae cracks 100 and a Pitt RB scores two touchdowns. Steelers 27-3.
• New England is buoyed yet again by the strength of their defense, forcing Pittsburgh into two or more turnovers, and doing just enough on offense. Patriots 16-10.
• Zeke turns back the clock, Zappe throws two touchdowns, and the NE defense continues to thrive. Patriots 24-9.

Forget the projected scores I threw in here. Read these outcomes and see which one grabs you. In my opinion, the four true outcomes here are really all viable. This is precisely why it’s tough to get a read on this game. With Pittsburgh installed as six-point home favorites, we’ll rule out the second scenario as an off script outcome. Steelers players will likely be higher owned than the Patriots, so if a home favorite dominates, that’s too expected. Instead, I’ll select a hybrid of the first and third scenarios above, expecting a close game without much scoring, where either team can win late.

Xandamere nailed it above with where the points should come from on each side. Zeke, Parker, and Henry on NE; and Pickens, Diontae, Najee and Warren for the Steelers. Zeke’s expected volume will be hard to ignore, and Henry has some (minimal) touchdown equity. The Pittsburgh running backs are safe, and either can be played (I lean toward Najee), while the receivers are really a toss up between Pickens, Diontae, or both. With Trubisky hitting Johnson for a touchdown last week, I’ll likely lean his way for a robust 8/45 performance, or something similar. And oh yeah, don’t forget about the defenses and kickers in this one.

Off Script Captains: Diontae, Pickens, Henry

Off Script Builds: CPT Diontae + Mitch + Najee + PIT D in 4-2 PIT builds // CPT Pickens + Mitch + Zappe in higher scoring builds