The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
Thanks to the NFL scheduling this weekend’s games in a way that will surely get us all in trouble with our families, the Sunday main slate consists of only nine games. From those games, there is a clear top projected game environment between the Cowboys and Dolphins with its 50-point over/under and close point spread. There is also a clear “runner-up”, with the Lions and Vikings game having an over/under of 47 and a very close spread as well. After that, there is a fairly significant drop and then several games with similar on-paper projections::
Which game from that list gets your vote as the best game environment to target and get “on the podium” as a top-3 option on the slate?
It’s funny that this question is framed in this way, as I was thinking about this right before opening The Oracle to start answering questions.
First off, I should point out that I can see a clear case being made for literally any of those games. But what I was thinking right before I opened The Oracle was, “What if Cardinals at Bears turns into a running-QB showcase and becomes a genuinely exciting game?” The Bears’ defense has been excellent lately, but we know that their biggest structural weakness is tight ends, and they’re now facing Trey McBride and a QB who could, conceivably, attempt to take over this game with his legs as well. On the other side, Fields and D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet are very much capable of hanging a big number on the Cardinals. I could see the Bears’ split backfield soaking up the touchdowns and the Cardinals failing to get anything going against Chicago…but I could also see this game developing into something big in the context of this slate.
I’d go with JAX/TB as my first choice with CLE/HOU being an honorary mention. JAX/TB has everything I want: both offenses are capable, both offenses are pretty concentrated, both offenses are in matchups that tilt them to attacking via the air. I can see passing volume, I can see passing success, and I feel like I have a high degree of confidence in where the ball is going. Gimme.
Gimme all of the Browns and Texans, man. I just got done enthusiastically breaking that game down on The Slate podcast so I won’t belabor the details here. I will say, however, that this game has all the ingredients to truly erupt – concentrated offenses, solid offensive play callers, desperation factor (each team fighting for their playoff lives), and underperforming defenses in their current form. Jaguars-Bucs probably ranks second on that list, for me.
For me, IND @ ATL is the game that stands out as having a chance to end up top-3 in game environments, if not higher. We have seen so many times this year that the Colts game can turn into high scoring affairs thanks to their well schemed offense under head coach Shane Steichen as well as the aggressive but flawed defense that can make big plays but also gives up their share of yards and points. Ironically, a lot of the big plays may flow through the running game as both teams are relatively run-heavy and their best offensive players are Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor. Atlanta has, deservedly, taken a lot of heat this year for not maximizing their skill players, but what we have seen from them is they are capable of being pulled into great game environments by their opponents in certain situations. Given the tendency of Colts games to create those chaotic scoring environments, I think there is a pretty good chance this turns into the game that breaks away from that “mid-tier” pack.
This one is for Xandamere.
We have a nine game slate this week. We also have a situation where there are a couple of very low total games and some of the elite wide receivers have extremely high salaries. Enter the tight end position. After a slow start to 2023, we have seen several tight ends jump into huge roles for their teams and post “ceiling” games. This week we have several of those players on the same slate::
There are also some cheaper options and tight ends with good roles who can easily be stacked with their quarterback. Considering all of the dynamics of the slate, how do you feel about rolling out two tight ends this week? Does it provide more upside than what we would traditionally expect?
