The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
A weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?
Not that this is particularly unique for 2023, but the closest “high-total spread” we have this week is six points between the Cardinals and the Texans (i.e., there are games with closer spreads than that, but they are in lower-total spots). This effectively leaves us pursuing teams A) with high totals in somewhat non-competitive games, B) with lower totals in more competitive games, or C) with high totals in games that “could end up being competitive.”
In that third category, the main focus this week is the Cardinals and Texans, where the Texans are currently six point favorites and are implied to score 27.0 (with the Cardinals implied to score 21.0). Somewhat interestingly, the spread in the Bears/Lions game has closed as Fields’ health has come into clearer focus, with that game offering a very similar setup: Lions are currently 7.5 point favorites and are implied to score 27.75 (with the Bears implied to score 20.25).
I like the Cardinals this week and will have exposure to both sides of that game, but it’s definitely interesting that so much confidence is being expressed in Arizona’s offense when it seems that so little confidence is being expressed in Chicago’s offense.
With very little that truly stands out on this slate, and with pricing on the Cardinals pieces drawing so much attention toward that team, this is developing into a “one key to the slate” type of weekend, where — for example — if the Cardinals were to seriously underwhelm in this spot, the majority of the field would see their weekend ruined.
As noted above (and as noted throughout the week) — if I separate “what the field is doing” from my thoughts and simply look at what I was seeing in my independent research and thinking, I like the Cardinals this week. I’ll have rosters that build around that game (both through the Cardinals and through the Texans). But I’ll also have full sets of rosters this week that build around a scenario of “that game” (and the Cardinals in particular) underwhelming.
It’s a good week for balancing in some strategy elements such as this.
The sheer number of interesting games to target and good plays to choose from. We have 4 games with totals of 46.5 or higher. 5 teams with totals of 25 or higher. A few years ago that wouldn’t have seemed outlandish, but this year it feels like a breath of fresh air. In addition, there are a LOT of players that I feel like I can make a solid case for….but also factors that ding many of those plays. As in, even for most of these good plays, there aren’t many who are a “smash” play where the only way they can fail is “because football is weird.” Lots of good plays, but also not a lot of “must” plays, which means many different ways we can build.
There are a lot of unique aspects of this slate that come together to form one of the more game theoretic slates in recent memory. First off, there are very few “projectable value” options available, with almost all of them coming from the Texans-Cardinals game. That has simultaneously reduced the expected ownership on the players priced in the elite pricing tier ($8,000+) while placing extreme ownership on the perceived value options from the Texans and Cardinals. Furthermore, the tight ends priced between $4,000 and $5,000 are currently projected for 98% combined ownership. Finally, we’re back to a down median game total week. All of that comes together to form an extremely chalky slate, giving us innumerable paths to generating leverage smartly. More on this in the End Around and on The Slate pod!
Coming off an exciting week in the NFL where there was finally a ton of scoring, we have several games with shootout potential but no “slam dunk” spots. A couple of the spots (Lions, 49ers), have teams that should put up a ton of points but the salaries of the players make it hard to stack. Meanwhile, a couple of the spots (LAC/GB and SEA/LAR) have clear paths to surpassing expectations but have at least one offense that is uncomfortable to trust.
There are also several really interesting players in “bounce back” spots who should be lower-owned thanks to recent production and still-elevated price tags. Guys like Adam Thielen, Tony Pollard, Cooper Kupp, Brandon Aiyuk, and Justin Fields stand out as those types of players (sneak peek to my answer to question #5 here!)
We have four games on this week’s slate that are the second matchup between divisional opponents. Over the next few weeks we will continue to see many of these matchups. How much, if any, stock do you put in the outcome of the first matchup when evaluating the second? Also, what specific things do you look for or find the most predictive?
