The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
A weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?
There are three things that really stand out to me about this slate as being “particularly unique.”
Firstly, we’re missing Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert, while Jalen Hurts is facing the Jets and Tua Tagovailoa is in a spot where A) the Dolphins should be in control, and B) it’s easier to run than it is to pass. Obviously, this isn’t to say that Hurts and Tua can’t hit, but we have a squeezed-down week at QB, where the eye is more drawn toward the middle range of pricing.
Secondly, we’re missing Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Austin Ekeler, and DraftKings is finally starting to price running backs more appropriately for their roles in the modern NFL. The one true “do it all back” (CMC) is priced well above the other guys, in a matchup and game environment that might not be conducive to a “had to have it” game. Same as Hurts and Tua: this isn’t to say CMC can’t hit, but we have a squeezed-down week at RB, where the eye is more drawn toward the middle range of pricing.
Thirdly, we have a wide-open WR week, where there seem to be viable “upside options” across the pricing ranges.
Definitely a unique setup compared to what we have in a typical DFS weekend.
We have a LOT of value, and, there are a lot of really strong plays. It’s the first week that, to me, is just chock-full of really strong plays in strong spots, all the way up and down the pricing spectrum. Because of that, even though a lot of these plays are obvious and are attracting ownership, the chalk is getting spread out because there are just SO many strong options. What this means is that you don’t have to worry about going as off the board in tournaments, but…there are also some really strong pivot options that are in the same game environments as the chalky plays but they are just not attracting the same level of ownership (Jaylen Waddle on Miami, TJ Hockenson on the Vikings, etc.). You don’t have to delve into weird spots like the Browns to try and find “sneaky” upside – the sneaky upside this week is really just hanging around the best games.
This is the first true slate this season with legitimate value options available, primarily at the running back position (plus wide receivers like Josh Downs and K.J. Osborn), meaning we’re likely to see the chalk build involve more of a “stars and scrubs” approach as people look to spend up at the wide receiver position. That said, there are numerous options in the sub-elite pricing tier at wide receiver that offer elite upside on this slate, most of whom are likely to go largely overlooked. From a macro perspective, this slate is ripe for leverage potential. From a micro matchup perspective, there aren’t any “jump off the page, must-have, can’t-miss” spots on this slate, which could lead to some suboptimal roster construction tendencies from the field.
The biggest thing that stands out to me about this week’s slate is the lack of a clear premium game environment. The games with the highest total on the slate are the Cardinals // Rams game at 47.5 and the Panthers // Dolphins game at 48. It is rare that we have no game over 50 and this week provides a unique situation where there are eight of the 11 games that have totals between 40 and 45, which means there is the potential for several games to be the one that breaks the slate.
From a player perspective, Hilow hit the nail on the head in terms of this being the first time we have legitimate value options to consider, and with CMC plus the “Big 3” wide receivers (Tyreek, Kupp, Chase) on the slate, it will certainly drive roster construction in a certain direction.
The NFL season is in full swing and nothing reminds us of that more than when the injuries start piling up and we have to try to figure out how teams will adjust to their personnel changes. As it currently stands, there are four teams with big question marks around their running back situations:
Draftkings is often very good about pricing up backup RBs, so this week is very unique in the fact that we may have so many situations of huge salary saving opportunities at the position on RBs who could reasonably touch the ball 15 or more times. This question is not necessarily about how you view the individual players listed above, but rather how this dynamic affects the macro state of the slate. In other words, how do you plan to handle all of this excessive running back value and will it have an effect on the way you build your rosters?
