Papy’s Pieces 18.23

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• Week 18 is defined by individual team needs more than by game totals. Make sure to pay attention to each team’s motivation. 
• There are seven games where one or both teams have a reason to play for the win. They are Atl // NO, TB // Car, Min // Det, Jax // Ten, Sea // Ari, Chi // GB, and Dal // Was. 
• There is one game (Phi // NYG) where the Eagles have a lot to play for if the outcome of Dal//Was is in question, however, if Dallas is winning big early, there is a risk the Eagles will react by taking out key players.
• There are five games that are meaningless to both teams: Cle // Cin, NYJ // NE, KC // LAC, Den // LV, and LAR // SF. 
• Despite the size of the slate the overall totals are low with the highest total being 47.5 (Sea // Ari) and nine of the 13 totals coming in at 42 or below. 
• The games with totals above 42 are Min // Det, Chi // GB, Dal // Was, and Sea // Ari. 

Pawn – WR Christian Kirk ($3,000) 

I waited as long as possible to write this piece to try and get clarity on whether Kirk will be back this week but it appears the decision will come down to the wire. I’m going to guess Kirk suits up since this is a must-win game and Kirk was able to practice in a limited fashion this week. The same can be said for Trevor Lawrence who I think will also end up playing, but even if he doesn’t, Kirk can succeed with C.J. Beathard. The main reason to play Kirk is that his price is comical. I don’t understand why he’s priced at the stone minimum. Sure, he’s coming off an injury, but this is a player who was regularly priced between $5,500 and $6,000, often presenting as a value at that cost. Ideally, Kirk plays, T-Law plays, and Zay Jones sits but no matter what happens with his teammates, if Kirk plays, he is grossly underpriced.  I’ll have a hard time not using Kirk on my tighter builds if he plays. If he misses, I’ll look at D.J. Chark ($3,700) to fill my cheap WR needs. Pay attention to the injury report, and if Kirk is expected to be full go, play him for free. 

Knight – TE Jake Ferguson ($4,900) 

It can be argued that Ferguson is the WR2 on the Cowboys offense behind only CeeDee Lamb. While some would claim that the role belongs to Brandin Cooks, target volume suggests otherwise. In Cooks last five games he’s seen 8 // 2 // 6 // 5 // 4 targets compared to 6 // 8 // 8 // 8 // 8 for Ferguson. Ferguson’s targets are incredibly consistent for a TE, and while his upside is touchdown dependent, he has a far higher floor than most of his counterparts. His upside hasn’t shown up much this year, since Ferguson only has five scores and is yet to register a multi-score game. If he had more touchdowns, he’d be priced around $6,000 among the other TEs who are first or second options in the passing game. We saw how touchdowns impact pricing when Ferguson saw his only meaningful price increase of the season ($3,600 – $4,600) after finding the end zone three weeks in a row between Weeks 8-10. He’s only scored once since that run, which has left his price lower than his opportunity. The Cowboys need to win and the Commanders defense is terrible. This could be the week Ferguson finds the end zone twice. 

Bishop – QB Nick Mullens ($5,100)