Papy’s Pieces 13.23

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• This slate has two standout games in Mia // Was (49.5) and SF // Phi (48). It also has two not-quite as-appealing, but still strong game environments in Den // Hou (47) and Det // NO (47).
• After the top four games, there isn’t another total on the slate above 42.5. That game is Ind // Ten, which is somewhat interesting, but clearly behind the top four game environments.
• There is a large gap on this slate between the top and bottom game environments
• Injuries will play a key role this slate, as they tend to later in the year. There are several mispriced players with the most notable being Zach Moss ($4,600) who wasn’t priced up on DK for Jonathan Taylor’s absence.
• Zach Moss is a great play on paper and has already shown that he is capable of smashing in the lead role, but he’s expected to be mega chalk (over 50% owned) and he has a tough matchup, creating strategic reasons to consider fading him in large field play.

Pawn – WR Jameson Williams ($3,300)

There are several injury “free squares” who were considered for this spot. Zach Moss ($4,600), Jordan Bevin ($2,500), and Saints pass catcher of choice come to mind. While they’re all strong value plays and I’ll have exposure to them in my lineups, they are expected to be relatively chalky, with Moss potentially being the highest owned player on a main slate this season. If you’re looking for a place to be different at salary savor, Williams is a good option. He has played over 50% of the snaps since the Lions bye, cresting at 60% the past two weeks. Lions OC Ben Johnson said this week that Williams has earned the opportunity for reps, which should mean we finally see Williams in the full-time role he was drafted to fill. The dude can fly and has plus size. There is no reason a player of his caliber on a good offense should be priced near the salary minimum if he’s going to be used as a full-time player. Williams is going to have a big game before the end of the season and will never be this cheap again. I’m going to have MME exposure to Williams, with a good chance he makes some of might tighter builds, even if it’s a little too risky for my single-entry lineup.

Knight – TE Trey McBride ($4,900)

Why doesn’t McBride’s price increase? He has seen 9 // 7 // 9 // 5 // 14 targets in the past five weeks which is elite usage for a TE and strong usage for a WR. He’s produced DK scores of 13 // 9.3 // 24.1 // 5.2 // 25.5 in those games so it’s not as if he isn’t capitalizing on the opportunity. Yet, here we are, with another week of him being priced below $5,000. The matchup isn’t anything special, but the Cards are +6.5 road underdogs. That means they’ll probably be losing, which creates passing game volume. McBride is currently listed as questionable, but after practicing Thursday and Friday in a limited fashion, it appears more likely than not that he plays. Keep an eye on late injury reports, but if he’s full go and continues to be priced like a mid-range TE, I’m going to ride McBride.  

Bishop – RB Rachaad White ($6,300)

I wrote this game up for the Edge and covered White in that space. I don’t want to retrace my steps too much, but he can’t be left out of this article, since he will be a staple of my lineups this week. This is more about White’s matchup than him as a player.  White has consistently underwhelmed in efficiency metrics, but he is one of the few feature backs left in the NFL and this week he gets the run funnel Panthers. White has averaged over seven more carries in the Bucs wins than in their muti-score losses. There is a good chance he gets the most carries of the season this week, which gives him a lot of potential for 100 yards and a score on the ground. The Panthers are good against RBs through the air, but White has had a steady passing game role all season and he’ll probably still see a handful of targets. White has a high floor and more upside than he has most weeks. Play him with confidence.

Rook – WR Michael Pittman ($7,100)