Wednesday, Sep 9th
Thursday, Sep 10th

Papy’s Pieces 12.23

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board
  • This week brings us two stand-out games in Eagles // Bills (48.5) and Jaguars // Texans (47.5)
  • After the top two game environments, there are Rams // Cards (45), Bucs // Colts  (44.5), Chiefs // Raiders (43.5), and Saints // Falcons (41.5). The rest of the slate is made up of games with totals well below 40.
  • There are 10 starting QBs who are rookies or were backups to start the year. Several fit both criteria.
  • This is expected to be a competitive week. Only the Chiefs (-10) are large favorites. There isn’t another spread on the slate greater than four. 
  • The two top game environments are expected to draw heavy ownership, especially Jaguars // Texans.
Pawn – QB Desmond Ridder ($4,800)

I wrote up the Saints // Falcons game and didn’t make mention of Ridder. He’s grown on me over the week. There is nothing wrong with attacking any of the QBs in the top two game environments, but if you want to differentiate your roster by going cheap at QB, Ridder is your man. In his last three full games, Ridder scored 29.16 // 22.08 // 16.8 DK points. Does that sound like a QB who should be priced as a backup? Yes, Ridder has also put up duds this season, but his rushing upside alone makes him valuable at such a cheap price point. He can be stacked with either of his TEs or Drake London ($5,000) but can also be played naked since a big game from him will likely include a rushing score. I like Rashid Shaheed ($4,300) on the Saints side, which could create unique game stacks where I only use Ridder + Shaheed from this game. I’m going to use Ridder on lineups where I don’t pay up for a QB in one of the top two game environments, and since Gardner Minshew ($5,100) is projected to be the popular cheap QB, it’s almost assured Ridder will have low ownership.

Knight – TE Trey McBride ($4,700)

McBride remains stubbornly priced below $5,000, despite producing like an elite TE since Ertz went down with an injury. McBride has seen 7 // 9 // 5 // 14 targets in the past four weeks which is strong for a WR and elite for a TE. McBride is tied for the team lead in targets (16) with Marquise Brown since Kyler Murray’s return. He’s being used as the first or second option in the passing game and anytime a TE is higher than third in the target pecking order, he should be priced above $5,000. McBride has given the team no reason to stop using him, having caught 13 of his 16 targets from Murray for 174 yards. The Rams have been generous to TEs this year, and all signs point to another good game from McBride. He’s going to be chalk, but occasionally you must chew some chalk to win in DFS.

Bishop – WR Diontae Johnson ($4,900)

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