Papy’s Pieces 9.23

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• This week is tough. I’m not sure I’ve seen a slate with so many low total games. A whopping seven games have totals below 42.
• The Seahawks // Ravens and Colts // Panthers are next, with totals of only 44. That leaves just Cowboys // Eagles with a desirable total of 47. Cowboys // Eagles is also projected to be competitive with the home team installed as modest three-point favorites.
• The low total plague is largely being caused by a swath of backup QBs who are expected to start this week.
• Saquon Barkley is the only player on the slate who can confidentiality be projected to see over 80% of his team’s RB snaps.
• Only Alvin Kamara // Josh Jacobs // Deandre Swift can be projected to handle 70% of their team’s RB snaps, and all of them have paths to being 60% snap rate players. 
• Outside of guys playing in the top game environment (Cowboys // Eagles) all of the high priced WRs have question marks
• TE is the thinnest it’s been all season

Pawn – WR Jonathan Mingo ($3,400)

Mingo gets the Colts who have created explosive game environments all year. They’ve given up the sixth most yards to WRs, and the favorable matchup is why a large portion of the field is expected to pay up for Adam Thielen ($7,500). There is no question Thielen has been the alpha on this offense with a 35% target share, but last week was Thomas Brown’s first game as the Panthers play caller and it was clear coming out of the bye that he wanted to get Mingo more involved. Mingo played 99% of the snaps in Week 8 and had his highest yardage total of the season. With Theilen expected to be expensive chalk, and the field flocking to the Patriots WRs for salary relief, Mingo offers low owned leverage if this week is his coming out party.

Knight – QB Mac Jones ($4,900)

Mac isn’t currently projected to be popular, which is surprising, because his WRs, especially Demario Douglas, are all projected to be used as salary relief. I suspect that Mac’s ownership might creep up, but as long as it stays reasonable, he’s a strong value play. Priced like a backup, at home, against a defense that just traded away two of its best pass rushers, it’s not hard to see Jones having one of his best games. He showed his upside in Week 1 when he dropped 28 DK points on the Eagles, and he could break 20 DK points for the second time against the Commanders.

Honorable mention – WR Christian Watson ($4,900)

How many times am I going to let Christian Watson burn me? At least one more. Watson has played the most snaps of any Packers WR in the past two weeks and is a WR1 priced like a WR3. Watson saw three end zone targets last week, and we all saw what he could do with that type of usage at the end of last season. Jordan Love has been much better when not under pressure and remains aggressive with the deepest intended air yards per attempt in the league. The Rams have a weak pass rush and invite deep passing having faced the 5^th deepest aDOT in the league. Watson is eventually going to hit for a monster game, at a massive discount, at no ownership. I refuse to miss out when it happens.

Bishop – TE T.J Hockenson ($5,200)