Late Swap 9.23

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

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Outlook – Late Games:

After 13 games on the last main slate, Week 9 offers us a small 10 game slate, with only one game with an implied point total over 44. This feels a lot like Week 7, a slate viewed as “gross” by the field and tournament winning scores in the low 200s. As always, chalk is forming, and it’s mainly focused on the RB position, with 8 backs currently projecting for 20% or more ownership. In terms of roster construction, this likely means we’ll see a lot more 3 RB builds this week than usual. In a week with very few comfortable plays, the field is scrambling to find “feel good” options. We’ll discuss below how we can utilize that knowledge to our advantage as there are 3 games in the late window this week, including two of the three best on-paper game environments.

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

• Alvin Kamara, Rhamondre Stevenson, Rachaad White and Bijan Robinson – Projection models have these RBs as some of the best on paper plays at the position, and as such, each is likely to garner around 20% ownership. Add in Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor from the late games, and a vast majority of the field (probably close to 80%) will be rostering two or more of these eight RBs.
• Seahawks at Ravens – The 2^nd highest game total on the slate at 44, I expect ownership on the skill position players (Lamar, Walker, Andrews, Lockett, Metcalf, Zay Flowers, and Gus Edwards) to come in higher than currently projected. If Mark Andrews goes for 30 DK points, the only TE in the late window that realistically can match that output is Dallas Goedert.  
• Demario Douglas – Currently projecting as the highest owned WR. I know that Kendrick Bourne is on IR and DeVante Parker has been ruled out with a concussion, but 20% ownership on a 5’8 rookie with 19 career receptions and a high of 11.4 DK points just feels insane. However, if he goes for 20+, you’ll need to account for his score.
• Patriots DST – The field is loving their Pats this week as New England projects for 50% more ownership than the second-highest owned DST unit.Slate Breakers, such as Ja’Marr Chase’s 55.2 DK point performance in Week 5 or CeeDee Lamb’s 44 points last week.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

$7,100 and up: