Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
There are two primary aspects that make this slate unique. First, it’s a 14-game monster of a slate. As we’ve covered in the past, that means that there are more opportunities for outlier production to occur, which statistically and theoretically means we are likely to need a higher raw score to win GPPs this week. That said, the effective slate size is much smaller than that due to the innumerable resting teams and resting players. That shrinks the effective slate size down to what amounts to a 10-game or even a nine-game slate due to the actual number of players that are expected to see a full allotment of snaps, maybe even lower than that. So, while there is a large number of teams on this slate, the pool of players expected to see a full workload is akin to a smaller slate. That theoretically means 30+ DK point outputs are going to be harder to come by, effectively lowering the raw score required to ship GPPs. Second, this slate is riddled with uncertainty, with most of that coming in the form of uncertainty around playing time and the expected distribution of opportunities.
That means it is imperative that we stay grounded in our approach this week. What I mean by that is this – we must be able to distinguish between the top on-paper plays, plays with elite upside, and plays that simply project well due to the expectation of an increased role. The final note for the Week 18 main slate is to keep in mind the “what if.” What if the Cowboys, Eagles, and Lions play their starters the entire game? What if Ronnie Rivers operates as a workhorse back for the Rams? What if the Cardinals push the Seahawks? What if the Raiders finish the season with a defensive masterclass in an emotionally charged year?
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The Cowboys must win to lock up two home playoff games with the two-seed. A loss and Lions win would drop them all the way from the two-seed to the five-seed, which is effectively the difference between the potential for two playoff home games and going on the road throughout the postseason. I’d say this team is going to operate as they normally would until the game is in hand, and if the game is in hand, it is highly likely that CeeDee Lamb has contributed to the Dallas production.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. The field seems to be indicating a high level of confidence that Kyle Shanahan will rest or play Elijah Mitchell sparingly, which I don’t necessarily view as the likeliest outcome here. This could be a case where Mitchell operates as the lead back in the first half before giving way to Mason in the second, it could be a case where Mitchell is the lead back the entire game, and it could be a case where Mason operates as the lead back for most of the game – and everything in between.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The Vikings need a win and help in three other spots to make the playoffs (losses by the Packers, Saints, and Seahawks). That said, the only thing they can control is to win their game against the Lions, the latter of whom will be playing for playoff seeding with the chance to jump to the two-seed. Justin Jefferson has seen double-digit targets in three consecutive games as the alpha in this offense and carries the best alignment of skills to mesh with quarterback Nick Mullens. That does not guarantee fantasy success here (as he’s proven in recent weeks), as he’s returned just one GPP-viable score since returning from injury (four weeks).
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I started this week by circling Tony Pollard in pencil as a player that could return viability at expected low ownership – and then I looked at ownership. Pop quiz! How many games this season has Tony Pollard returned GPP viability at his current $6,500 salary? If you guessed zero, you win!
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Another week, another expected massive Zamir White workload, this time coming against a Broncos team that has continued to struggle against the run this season. No problems here, although we must realize that White has a very small pass game role which requires him to surpass 100 yards on the ground and score multiple touchdowns for GPP ceiling.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. I don’t necessarily understand this one, personally. Both Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are likely to be active and play at least some of the game due to roster constraints. That still might only be the first few drives, but NFL teams average about four drives per half. That means Strong could see around five drives as the primary back. Is that enough to put up a GPP-viable score? I don’t know, but it probably isn’t the most likely outcome here.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. We keep waiting for Olave to truly erupt in this offense, and it keeps not happening. Another pop quiz! How many GPP-viable scores has Chris Olave mustered at his current salary? The answer is unfortunately also zero.
