Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This is a 13-game slate. Let’s say that again for the people in the back – this is a 13-game slate. Look back at the scores required to ship GPPs in the first four weeks of the season, which was the last time we had 13-game slates. Okay, I’ll save you the trouble. We are highly likely to need 240-250 DK points to ship major GPPs in Week 17. Yes, pricing was a factor early in the season, but the fact that we have three to four more games on this slate when compared to the previous half of the season through bye weeks and special scheduling means there are more opportunities for outlier production to occur. In other words, it is statistically probable that more players post 95 percent plus outcomes with more games, which means more teams, which means more players, on the slate. That means that our recent comfort zone of 4x salary multipliers is not likely to cut it this week. That means that players priced below $5,000 that put up 15-18 DK points are highly unlikely to matter on this slate. That means that we absolutely must be attacking strong ranges of outcomes vigorously, with additional emphasis placed on raw point totals and potential ceiling in Week 17.
Before we jump into the meat and potatoes, let’s quickly discuss what is important on this slate. That process has treated us well during the second half of the 2023 season, which is a result of a shift in my own process after I started the season in a slump, tried to shift to MME play, and then forced a reset to refocus on what has made me such a profitable DFS player throughout my career.
There are four primary points of emphasis on this slate (and they should likely be viewed in this order) – the 49ers, the Rams, the Eagles, and the Dolphins-Ravens game. The first three are true primary points of emphasis while the fourth should more be considered for its lofty game total, which, as we know, should primarily be viewed as a median outcome. More on this below.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The best running back in the game, with the best running back role in the game, on the team with the highest Vegas implied team total in Week 17. Checks out. That said, let’s be honest with the fact that Christian McCaffrey has failed to top 25 DK points eight times this season (out of 15 games), which is the bare minimum score you would need to feel good about playing him at his prohibitive salary.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Zamir White has served as the lead back for the Raiders for the last two weeks while Josh Jacobs has been out. In those games, he has seen running back opportunity counts of 21 and 23 while playing snap rates of 70 and 76 percent. That’s borderline elite volume, in a matchup that had yielded 27.6 DK points per game this season (third most), at a price of only $5,100. Yes, White has clear paths to failure with very little pass game involvement, but that profile has to be treated as one of the best, if not the best, top point per dollar range of outcomes on the slate.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Look, I get it, the Denver defense has been much better of late but has continued to struggle to contain opposing tight ends, allowing 16.7 DK points per game to the position (most in the league). That said, Everett is a 60-70 percent snap rate player with 11 total red zone targets (in 13 games played) this season and a 3.8 aDOT. Miss me with this nonsense.
