Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
Last week’s prevailing theoretical governing constraint was information (injuries, weather, etc). This week, it’s time. We have less time to dedicate to the Sunday main slate due to the holidays and the Saturday slate. The major difference between the two slates is that the field has appeared to correctly identify the top on-paper spots on the Week 15 slate after struggling with that process in each of the previous two weeks. The one area that the field appears to be struggling with this week is identifying the value plays to gain access to the top on-paper plays, appearing to elect for the more “projectable” pieces (players with a higher median projection), and neglecting the players priced at $5,000 and below that carry legitimate, tourney-winning upside. Beyond playing the top environments in ways the field is unlikely to, this becomes one of the primary points of leverage on the slate as we hunt for first place finishes.
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Kyren Williams has the most valuable role of all running backs not named Christian McCaffrey, and now gets a matchup with a Commanders team that has surrendered a top five overall running back score in five consecutive weeks. I can stand behind this one.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Look, it’s extremely difficult to ignore the fact that Ezekiel Elliott is coming off a game where he saw 30 running back opportunities. We also must understand that Zeke is on the tail end of his career and that extreme workload came in a game where the Patriots controlled the environment throughout. That is extremely unlikely to occur against the Chiefs. Even so, Zeke carries the slate’s highest projected workload-to-price balance and could prove useful on a slate largely lacking projectable value pieces.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Christian McCaffrey has the league’s top role on one of the league’s top offenses, playing an opponent that has bled production to opposing backfields both on the ground and through the air. I can stand behind this one.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. The injuries in Green Bay are likely to force a higher degree of concentration amongst the primary skill position players that are healthy, in what has consistently been one of the more pass-funnel matchups in the league over the previous three seasons. We don’t expect a ton of volume from the Packers offense, and Reed is highly unlikely to pierce the 100-yard receiving threshold, making him a solid cost-considered, point-per-dollar play that comes with a rather shaky ceiling.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Antonio Gibson is an objectively a worse on-paper play than Ezekiel Elliott and is likely gaining steam due to the field’s interest in the Rams on this slate, a product of the hangover effect of forcing a bring-back (which, as we’ve proven this season, is a dying technique). I won’t be going here, personally.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Chigoziem Okonkwo has a modest 74 percent route participation rate, a meager 16.3 percent target share, and a gross 10.0 percent red zone target share. Yeah, we need value on this slate, but this ain’t it (for me).
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Wan’Dale Robinson is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season, which was buoyed by a late 32-yard catch against the Packers. This feels more “Nationally televised game boost” than top on-paper play. I don’t want any part of Robinson on a slate we’re likely to need to score 230-245 points to ship GPPs.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Is there going to be a slate where Trey McBride isn’t chalk for the remainder of the season? Good Lord, man, this dude just always garners ownership. He’s now at his most expensive salary of the season and is in the nut-worst matchup for tight end production. No, thank you.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Rashee Rice continues to be an objectively strong on-paper play in an expanding role, coming off a three-game stretch of 10, nine, and 10 targets. The matchup is not ideal, but we can comfortably expect eight to 12 targets for the emerging rookie.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. We kept talking about Matthew Stafford’s impending touchdown regression after he threw for multiple touchdowns just once in his first nine games. He has now thrown 10 touchdown passes in his previous three games and gets a Commanders defense that has bled production through the air all season. One major change with that defense was a shift away from their previously high man-heavy tendencies in favor of extreme rates of Cover-2 (71 percent) and zone (94 percent) in their first game with head coach Ron Rivera calling defensive plays. That doesn’t appreciably affect Stafford’s expectation here more than it alters the likeliest path for the production to flow.
