Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
This slate is #fun. Beyond their being two games with a game total greater than 50 points, and beyond their being four teams with Vegas implied team totals approaching or surpassing four touchdowns, and beyond numerous games with large spreads, and beyond the fact we have just 10 games on this slate due to bye weeks and a London game, this slate is fun. Notice the emphasis on fun, and not gross, hard, or difficult to navigate. This slate is fun. We have yet another unique puzzle to figure out better than the field. That is the mindset we need to have on a slate like this one. From a macro perspective, five of the top 10 teams in points per game through the first month of the season are not on the slate (Buffalo, San Francisco, Dallas, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers). But we also have the team averaging the most points per game (Miami) playing the team allowing the fourth most points per game (New York Giants) and much, much more to discuss. Let’s dive in!
Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Achane carries an absurd 9.0 true yards per carry, 10.3 yards per touch, 45.7 percent juke rate, and 18.5 percent breakaway run rate into Week 5, all of which rank first in the league amongst qualified running backs. He has 16 evaded tackles on 27 carries and eight receptions, which is by far the highest per-touch elusiveness rating through the season’s first month of play. He also seemingly took over the lead back role in the Miami backfield in the second half of the team’s Week 4 loss to the Bills. The problem with assuming the workload will carry forward is the game environment in which it occurred, with a pure negative game script likely contributing to the second half snap rate split and touch dispersal between him and Raheem Mostert. In other words, did Achane supplant Mostert, or was his usage a product of the game environment? That’s an important distinction considering the vastly different game environment expected in Week 5 against the Giants. Finally, the Giants allow a ridiculous 1.80 yards before contact per rush against this season.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Wan’dale Robinson was hand-selected by the current coaching regime as a second round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. His 28.2 percent targets per route run rate highlights his schemed usage in the offense. That said, Robinson carries a paltry 3.4 aDOT on 11 targets this season (6.2 aDOT in 2022) and played just 64 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 4, splitting time with another hand-picked asset on the offense in Parris Campbell. Robinson is objectively underpriced (duh, he’s priced at the minimum on DraftKings) but has very little chance to provide anything more than a solid cost-considered salary multiplier in this spot.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. He’s Justin Jefferson – the man is always in play. The other side of that argument is a Steve Spagnuolo defense that is designed to limit alpha wide receivers such as Jefferson. While that lowers his chances of putting the slate squarely out of reach (as in, you had to have him in order to win anything this weekend), Jefferson has still scored between 26.5 and 30.9 DK points in every contest this season.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The electric rookie running back leads the league in reception amongst qualified backs this season and has rushed for 318 yards through his first four NFL games, the latter of which ranks third in the league. His 5.6 true yards per carry ranks sixth in the league. At some point this season, Bijan Robinson is going to find the end zone multiple times in a game regardless of the fact he has just one carry inside the 10 compared to five for Tyler Allgeier. The ticking time bomb could go off at any moment.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Ja’Marr Chase is the unquestioned alpha for a broken offense, one that is severely limited by a quarterback who lacks any semblance of mobility in the pocket. That immobility has forced Zac Taylor to run an offense based exclusively out of the gun, which to this point in the season has limited his ability to generate much misdirection pre-snap via motion. Since the personnel on the roster precludes the Bengals from playing a true Z-type wide receiver, paired with the limited pre-snap movement, it allows opposing defenses to play more straight-up two-high defensive alignments, limiting the per-touch upside from the entire offense in the process. Enter a Jonathan Gannon defense that plays a modified two-high defensive scheme through shallow safeties (about 10-12 yards in depth beyond the line of scrimmage compared to the more natural 18-20 yards in other defenses around the league), which further limits the per-touch upside of all Bengals skill position players here. The injury to Tee Higgins could give Chase a clear path to 13-15 targets in this spot, but the limited upside lessens the chances of Chase burning you for not playing him.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Wink Martindale, the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants, has blitzed and run man coverage at the second highest rates in the league this season. Will that continue against the most dynamic offense in the league? Sheesh, I sure hope so! Tyreek Hill against primary man coverage over the previous two seasons with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa is one of the great cheat codes of modern football.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. First off, the comments surrounding Breece Hall and a potential easing of his strict snap count to this point in the season were vastly overstated by a major media outlet this week. That said, Hall ranks second in the league amongst qualified running backs in yards per touch at 6.8, behind only the previously discussed Achane. The matchup is also as pure as they come against a Denver defense allowing a robust 5.6 yards per carry. The Broncos also allow 1.50 yards before contact per carry this season, good for third worst in the league.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Marquise Brown has seen 27 targets during his previous three games. That’s the good. The bad is that his offense holds the second highest rush rate over expectation through four games (behind only the Falcons) and the Bengals allow 1.63 yards before contact per carry (second worst in the league). Those tendencies should allow the Cardinals the ability to control the game environment via a surprisingly dynamic run-blocking scheme.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. 13 catches on 14 targets in his first game action of the season in Week 4 has the field giddy to shove Alvin Kamara into their rosters through a Vegas implied team total of just 19 points. For comparison, the Jets are projected for 20.5 points currently.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. We know the deal by now – by all means, play Travis Kelce, just ensure he is paired with Patrick Mahomes when you do.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Panthers allow 1.50 yards before contact per carry this season, good for a tie for third worst in the league through four weeks. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been deemed doubtful while Jahmyr Gibbs popped on the team’s injury report on Friday with a new injury (never a good sign heading into the weekend). The Lions have one of the highest red zone rush rates in the league. Finally, Detroit is currently instilled as a 10 point home favorite. Everything lines up well for David Montgomery to approach or surpass his “healthy game average” of 26.5 carries and one target. Finally, Montgomery is on pace for two touchdowns per four quarters played, with five scores through 10 quarters.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Joe Mixon’s 84.7 percent opportunity share ranks fourth in the league but is weighed down by a 4.1 true yards per carry, the latter of which ranks 29th. A 44.7 percent route participation rate could increase should Higgins miss.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Cheap chalk defense, you say? No, thank you, Titans, not today!
